Betsided

Broncos vs. Saints Best Bets for Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 7 (Target Denver’s Defense)

Looking at three best bets to consider in Thursday’s Broncos-Saints matchup. 

By Shelby Dermer

Sep 22, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Denver Broncos linebacker Jonathon Cooper (0) celebrates after he sacked Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) (not pictured) during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
Sep 22, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Denver Broncos linebacker Jonathon Cooper (0) celebrates after he sacked Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) (not pictured) during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
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While Thursday night’s storylines revolve around Sean Payton’s return to the bayou, it’s also a matchup of two teams looking to bounce back after bad losses in Week 6.

Both the Broncos and Saints were short home underdogs in Week 6 but were completely outclassed. Denver fell to the Los Angeles Chargers, 23-16, in a game that was not as close as the final score indicated. Meanwhile, the Saints couldn’t stop anything defensively as the Buccaneers put up 50-plus points in the Caesars Superdome. 

A line was drawn in the sand by sports bettors when the Broncos opened this matchup as a 1.5-point underdog. Denver is now laying 2.5 points on the road and the total is listed at 37. 

Here are three best bets for the matchup. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Broncos vs. Saints Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

  • Alvin Kamara UNDER 71.5 Rushing Yards 
  • Javonte Williams OVER 45.5 Rushing Yards 
  • Jonathon Cooper OVER 0.25 Sacks 

Alvin Kamara UNDER 71.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Disclaimer, if you’re looking to play Kamara to go under, we’d recommend waiting until just before kickoff to do it. Especially in primetime games, superstars’ props typically get inflated the closer it gets to the start of the game. 

Denver’s defense allowed J.K. Dobbins to run for 96 yards on Sunday, but kept him under four yards per carry as the game script with LA nursing a 20-point lead called for Dobbins to consistently pound the rock. With Denver laying less than a field goal in this matchup, that script shouldn’t repeat itself. Prior to Dobbins, Denver hadn’t allowed a running back to eclipse this total since Kenneth Walker III in Week 1. 

Kamara began the year hot, but has been held to just 66 rushing yards on 24 attempts over the last two games combined. He’s done more damage through the air, especially with rookie Spencer Rattler under center for the Saints with Derek Carr on the mend. Denver’s defense, which is No. 1 in pass-rush win rate, will look to make the Saints one dimensional in this matchup and for good reason with the potential of Rattler’s inexperience leading to game-changing turnovers. 

Denver’s defense, which is No. 10 in run stop win rate, should plug up running lanes for Kamara for the majority of the night as New Orleans’ offense remains stuck in the mud. Don’t be fooled by the Saints’ 27 points on Sunday against Tampa Bay as they only averaged 4.6 yards per play, which would rank 29th in the NFL. 

Javonte Williams OVER 45.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

It’d be foolish not to invest in the Denver offense in some way for this matchup, especially after the Saints allowed 594 total yards and a whopping 7.9 yards per carry in last week’s loss to the Buccaneers. 

Williams has been a tough running back to figure out and this line is 10 yards higher than his average (35.5 rushing yards per game) for the season. However, the formula is simple. Williams is averaging 50 yards per game in Denver’s victories this season and just 21 yards per game in its losses. 

Denver is favored in this matchup in a projected low-scoring affair, so we’re going to trust Williams gets the lion’s share of the workload. He’s gotten 34 carries in Denver’s three wins this season and 25 in its three losses. Williams can shed a New Orleans defense that is dead last in run stop win rate. 

Jonathon Cooper OVER 0.25 Sacks (-110)

With his quick release and veteran savvy, Derek Carr may have been able to hide the Saints’ offensive line woes by getting rid of the ball. Spencer Rattler will not. The rookie was sacked five times in his NFL debut on Sunday against the Buccaneers and now the Broncos elite pass rush comes to town on a short week.

Denver leads the AFC in sacks (22), which is second in the NFL, and can feast Thursday against a New Orleans offensive line that ranks 29th in the league in pass-blocking win rate.

So why not target Denver’s best pass rusher? In a league filled with elite edge rushers, Cooper ranks 17th in pass-rush win rate and he’s eclipsed this sack total in four of six contests this season. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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