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Commanders vs. Lions NFL Best Bets for Divisional Round (Target Amon-Ra St. Brown)

Here are 3 bets for the Commanders-Lions playoff matchup on Saturday.

By Shelby Dermer

Jan 5, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) catches the ball for a first down against the Minnesota Vikings during the second half at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-Imagn Images
Jan 5, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) catches the ball for a first down against the Minnesota Vikings during the second half at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-Imagn Images / David Reginek-Imagn Images
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The Washington Commanders were the only Wild Card team to advance to the divisional round. Led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, Washington went into Tampa Bay and pulled out a 23-20 victory over the NFC South champion Buccaneers. 

Washington’s reward is a trip to the Motor City, where the top-seeded Detroit Lions wait for a Divisional Round tilt on Saturday night. 

The Lions are currently the biggest favorite of the second round at 9.5 points and oddsmakers are projecting a shootout with a sky-high total of 55.5 points. 

Here are three bets for the matchup.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Commanders vs. Lions NFL Best Bets for Divisional Round 

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 75.5 Receiving Yards 
  • Brian Robinson Jr. UNDER 35.5 Rushing Yards 
  • Sam LaPorta Anytime TD Scorer 

Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 75.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

This is right around St. Brown’s average this season (74.3) but expect the prop numbers for key players to go up the closer it gets to kickoff, so get after this one early.

The Lions and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, the hottest name on the head-coaching market, are going to make sure their star players get the rock in the biggest games. 

Last season in the playoffs, St. Brown averaged 7.3 receptions on 11.3 targets and 91.3 receiving yards across three games. Washington was one of the best pass defenses (No. 3) in the NFL this season, but you’ll take Detroit’s elite offense to have the advantage in this matchup. 

Brian Robinson Jr. UNDER 35.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

There are a few things working against Robinson in this matchup. For starters, he’s in a crowded backfield with Austin Ekeler, who has a rushing yardage prop of 24.5 for Saturday’s matchup. 

Secondly, Robinson has found little room to run recently with just 15 carries for 21 yards over the last two games. He’s gone under this rushing yardage prop in three of the last four contests. Robinson out-carried Ekeler just 10-8 in the first round against Tampa Bay.

Secondly, Daniels is running a lot more after getting fully healthy from a rib injury he suffered in mid-October. Taking out Week 18, when Daniels played sparingly in a win over Dallas, Daniels has run at least seven times in seven consecutive games. In crunch time in the first round, Daniels ran 13 times and the rookie has the Commanders’ highest rushing yardage prop (54.5) against Detroit. 

Detroit also allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks during the regular season, so expect some designed looks for Daniels in the run game. 

Lastly, the game script is not in Robinson’s favor with Washington nearing a double-digit underdog against the Lions. Go under on Washington’s No. 1 back. 

Sam LaPorta Anytime TD Scorer (+145)

LaPorta might have made a ton of Fantasy Football players upset this season as the projected No. 1 tight end in the NFL, but the second-year Iowa product has turned his season around down the stretch. 

Laporta had at least 43 receiving yards in five consecutive games to end the regular season and his yardage prop for Saturday is sitting at 49.5. Instead, we’ll focus on LaPorta’s elite ability in the redzone. Washington is No. 23 in redzone defense and allowed the second-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends (8) in the NFC. Only Carolina allowed more tight ends to score (11).

Five of LaPorta’s seven receiving touchdowns came over the final eight games of the regular season. He was a popular target for Jared Goff in three playoff games last season (21 catches on 27 targets). He stays hot on Saturday. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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