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MLB Playoff Best Bets Today (Target Walker Buehler, Fade Aaron Nola)

Here is a best bet to consider in both National League playoff matchups on Tuesday.

By Shelby Dermer

Sep 23, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola (27) throws a pitch during the fourth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
Sep 23, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola (27) throws a pitch during the fourth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
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Playoff baseball is here and it has delivered thus far with all four divisional round series currently tied 1-1. 

The National League takes center stage on Tuesday as both series switch venues for a pair of pivotal Game 3 matchups. The Philadelphia Phillies head to Citi Field to face the New York Mets in a game that is essentially a pick ‘em. 

On the West Coast, the Dodgers turn to Walker Buehler for their visit to Petco Park, though the Padres are currently -162 favorites. 

Here is a best bet from each matchup to consider. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

MLB Playoff Best Bets Today 

  • Aaron Nola OVER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed 
  • Walker Buehler UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed 

Aaron Nola OVER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-175)

The last time we saw Aaron Nola toe the slab in the postseason, he allowed four runs on six hits over just 4 ⅓ innings in Game 6 of the NLCS last October with a chance to send the Phillies to the World Series. 

Prior to that outing, though, Nola allowed just two earned runs in 18 ⅔ innings over three postseason starts. However, Nola’s road playoff history hasn’t been pretty. In the 2022 postseason, Nola made three road starts. In those outings, he combined to allow 11 earned runs over 15 ⅔ innings. 

Nola doesn’t come into this matchup on a hot streak, either. In six September starts, Nola posted a 4.91 ERA, permitting 38 hits over 33 innings. That includes a lopsided loss to the Mets, where he was knocked around for six runs and didn’t make it out of the fifth inning. 

It’s worth mentioning that Nola did throw a complete-game shutout against the Mets on May 14, but this is not the same Mets squad that was 11 games under .500 in June. The Mets seemingly come up with clutch hits in every big game over the last few weeks and this lineup has a great track record against Nola. 

Collectively, the Mets’ lineup is hitting .272 against Nola with nearly 250 at-bats in that sample size. 

Walker Buehler UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-145)

In a challenging season filled with injuries, Buehler was roughed up, posting just a 1-6 record and a 5.38 ERA. 

However, this is still a two-time All-Star who has delivered in big postseason spots in his career for the Dodgers. In 15 career playoff appearances, Buehler has an impressive 2.94 ERA. 

The last two years have been filled with lows for Buehler after missing all of 2023, but he’s always been able to post zeroes on the board against the Padres. The San Diego lineup is hitting a collective .204 against Buehler with just a .256 on-base percentage and 38 strikeouts against just 11 walks. 

Buehler was able to end the regular season on a high note with five innings of one-run ball in a win over the Padres on Sept. 26. Working with this prop is the possibility of a short leash for the right-hander. Buehler’s recorded outs prop is only 13.5 for Tuesday night and we’re counting on another impressive postseason start against a team he’s had success with in the past.

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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