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NFL Best ATS Picks for Week 15 (Target These 3 Underdogs)

A look at three ATS bets to consider in Week 15.

By Shelby Dermer

Dec 8, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (3) passes the ball against the Cleveland Browns during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
Dec 8, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (3) passes the ball against the Cleveland Browns during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
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The regular season is winding down as we roll toward Christmas and the postseason. There are no more bye weeks in the NFL, which means we have a full slate to attack from a betting perspective. 

Week 15 also features a slew of competitive matchups with seven games with a spread of three points or less. 

Here are three ATS picks to consider in Week 15.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Best ATS Picks for Week 15 

  • Miami Dolphins (+3) at Houston Texans 
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (+5) at Philadelphia Eagles
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers 

Miami Dolphins (+3) at Houston Texans 

The Miami Dolphins were left for dead following a 2-6 start, but the return of Tua Tagovailoa has them right back in the postseason mix with four weeks left in the regular season.

Miami has won four of its last five games and Tagovailoa is playing well with three consecutive 300-yard passing games. Miami has the momentum after rallying for a miracle win in overtime last week over the New York Jets. 

Houston will cruise to a division title barring a huge collapse down the stretch, but things have looked clunky for the Texans. Houston is coming off back-to-back sub-par divisional outings, starting with a 32-27 home loss to the Tennessee Titans before pulling out a three-point win on the road against Jacksonville in a game where the Jaguars played the majority of with a backup quarterback. 

With Tagovailoa healthy, these two teams are pretty even and we’ll gladly take the three points for a Dolphins squad that is treating every week like a playoff game. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (+5) at Philadelphia Eagles 

It sounds like a broken record to mention Mike Tomlin’s resume as an underdog but it’s just been that impressive. Tomlin is 60-32-3 ATS in his career as an underdog and the Steelers are 5-0 straight up this season as an underdog. 

Pittsburgh is known for its gritty, hard-nosed style of play but the Steelers have found something on offense with Russell Wilson turning back the clock after an abysmal stretch in Denver. Wilson has thrown 12 touchdowns against just three interceptions in seven games this season and has led the Steelers to 71 points over their last two games. 

Wilson should be able to extend plays and have success against a stout Philadelphia defense in a game that looks to be a war of attrition. Philadelphia’s defense has had to step up its play with the struggles of quarterback Jalen Hurts. 

The Eagles are on a nine-game winning streak but there’s no telling where this team would be if Saquon Barkley wasn’t playing at an MVP level. Hurts has been held to under 200 passing yards in three consecutive games while tensions are flaring up in that locker room despite the winning streak continuing. 

Pittsburgh has the No. 4 rushing defense in the NFL, so expect an all-in effort to slow down Barkley and keep him from wrecking this game. Expect a knock-down, drag-out fight and Pittsburgh is perfect as an underdog in that spot. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers 

Speaking of taking the underdog in a matchup of even teams, the Buccaneers and Chargers are pretty similar and we’ll take Tampa Bay on the road in this one. 

The Buccaneers, like the Dolphins, have brand-new life in their quest to host another playoff game. Tampa Bay was around 4-to-1 to win the division a month ago but have stormed back to become the NFC South favorites with a three-game winning streak. 

The Buccaneers defense did feast for the most part against sub-par offenses (New York, Carolina, Las Vegas) but that Chargers lack a lot of explosiveness and are facing a slew of injuries. J.K. Dobbins is now on the injured reserve and Ladd McConkey is still dealing with knee and shoulder issues that caused him to miss Week 14. 

The Chargers went all-in on Sunday Night Football in a heartbreaking loss at Arrowhead Stadium. It’s fair to question if their tank is less than full heading into a non-conference matchup in a venue where they have no home-field advantage. We’ll take Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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