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NFL Best Prop Bets for Week 12 (Target Props for These 3 Rookie QBs)

Here are three prop bets to consider in the NFL for Week 12.

By Shelby Dermer

Nov 14, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
Nov 14, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
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The NFL schedule roars past the halfway point and into the playoff push with Week 12 kicking off Thursday night in Cleveland.

We’ve already gone over some props for Thursday’s Steelers-Browns matchup and three teams to pick against the spread this week, so now it’s time to get into props for Week 12.

Here’s a trio of props to consider this week.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Best Prop Bets for Week 12 

  • Caleb Williams OVER 0.5 Interceptions
  • Jayden Daniels UNDER 38.5 Rushing Yards 
  • Bo Nix OVER 213.5 Passing Yards 

Caleb Williams OVER 0.5 Interceptions (+100)

Part of Caleb Williams’ criticism this season is that the No. 1 overall pick is holding onto the ball too long, taking too many sacks, and is not taking shots downfield. It’s led to stagnant performances by the Chicago offense, although the only positive is that he’s keeping the ball out of harm's way with just one interception over his last seven games. 

With new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown calling the offense last week, Williams was quick with his decisions and ran for a career-high 70 yards. That’s a reason to like Williams’ rushing yardage prop this week (not yet posted) at a fair number, but we’ll focus on the Minnesota defense for this prop.

The Vikings lead the NFL in interceptions (16) this season and have picked off a pass in all but one game thus far. Jared Goff is the only quarterback not to throw a pick against Minnesota. The Vikings, led by Brian Flores as defensive coordinator, are throwing out complex looks and confusing even some of the league’s best. Minnesota combined to intercept Aaron Rodgers, C.J. Stroud, and Jordan Love eight times. Against young or sub-par quarterbacks this season, it’s been a nightmare as the defense has feasted against (and intercepted) guys like Will Levis, Mac Jones, and Daniels Jones. They’ll do the same to Williams on Sunday. 

Jayden Daniels UNDER 38.5 Rushing Yards (-105)

Are we sure Daniels is completely healthy? The rookie has cooled off after a scorching start to the season after suffering a rib injury early in a blowout win over the Carolina Panthers Oct. 20. In the four games since, Daniels has been hesitant to run, averaging just 6.5 attempts for 27.5 yards.

Daniels has gone under this rushing yardage prop in three consecutive games. Although the Cowboys have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, this is a game where Daniels shouldn’t have to do too much for Washington to win. The Commanders are 10.5-point favorites over Dallas, so the game script should call for a cautious second half while Washington feeds its running backs against a bad Cowboys run defense. 

Bo Nix OVER 213.5 Passing Yards (-120)

We’ll go right back with Bo Nix while he makes his late-season push for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Nix is coming off his best game, throwing for 307 yards and four touchdowns against Atlanta.

Nix has gone over this passing yardage prop in four consecutive games and he’ll face a Las Vegas defense that is giving up passing yards in droves in recent weeks. The Raiders are turning their attention to next season and the defense has taken a major step back, allowing three consecutive quarterbacks to throw for at least 250 yards.

Nix isn’t on the same level as Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, or Patrick Mahomes, but that’s why we’re getting this line at just a shade over 200 passing yards. We’ll ride the hot hand with Nix in a game Denver should win on the road. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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