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NFL Best Prop Bets for Week 16 (Fade Terry McLaurin, Geno Smith)

Here are three prop bets to consider for Week 16.

By Shelby Dermer

Nov 10, 2024; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin (17) looks on from the field during final minute of the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Northwest Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images
Nov 10, 2024; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin (17) looks on from the field during final minute of the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Northwest Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images / Amber Searls-Imagn Images
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We’ve already gone over three ATS picks to consider for Week 16, now it’s time to move on to some props. 

This week has a little bit of everything as we’ll fade a star wide receiver in a nightmare matchup and we’ll target an emerging tight end in a matchup where both teams likely want to lose.

Here are three prop bets to consider in Week 16. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Best Prop Bets for Week 16

  • Terry McLaurin UNDER 60.5 Receiving Yards 
  • Brenton Strange OVER 38.5 Receiving Yards 
  • Geno Smith OVER 0.5 Interceptions

Terry McLaurin UNDER 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

McLaurin has gone over this receiving yardage prop in three consecutive games and is coming off a two-touchdown performance in Washington’s win over New Orleans. McLaurin is averaging nearly 70 receiving yards per game but this prop has some Philadelphia love baked into it. 

In the previous meeting with these two teams, the Eagles’ completely shut down McLaurin on their way to a 26-18 victory. McLaurin managed just one catch for 10 yards on two targets. He was held in check by Philadelphia rookie corner Quinyon Mitchell, who is now the runner-up for Defensive Rookie of the Year (+175). Washington’s receiver room is top-heavy with McLaurin leading the way with 68 catches. The next-best receiver is Noah Brown with 35. Philadelphia’s top-ranked passing defense makes McLaurin its focal point again and keeps him under this number. 

Brenton Strange OVER 38.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

The 2023 second-round pick was a perfect security blanket for Mac Jones in last week’s loss to the New York Jets, hauling in 11 of 12 targets for 73 yards. 

While New York kept the yards-after-catch at a minimum, Strange does have a 14-yard and 21-yard snag from Jones under his belt over the last three weeks. The Raiders’ linebackers are below-average in pass coverage and Las Vegas has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards (908) to tight ends this season. 

Geno Smith OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-115)

Geno Smith completed 79% of his passes in a start that was cut short against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football. Before he left, though, Smith made sure to throw another costly redzone interception that helped Green Bay build a comfortable cushion.

Smith now ranks third in the NFL in interceptions (13) heading into another huge home matchup that the Seahawks desperately need in a tight NFC West race. The Minnesota Vikings come to town on Sunday with one of the theftuous defenses in the league.

Minnesota is tied for second in the league in total takeaways (28) and leads the NFL with 20 interceptions and Smith puts the ball in harm’s way at a high rate heading into this matchup. Smith has thrown eight interceptions against teams with a .500 record or better (he’s thrown five combined against the 6-8 Dolphins and 49ers). 

Smith has been particularly bad when defenses know he’s gonna air it out. When trailing this season, Smith has thrown seven interceptions and his passer rating has a 4-point dip compared to win Seattle is leading. As a three-point road favorite, we’ll expect Minnesota to build a lead and there’s no better defense to take advantage of Smith’s struggles. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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