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NFL Best Prop Bets for Week 7 (Fade These Running Backs)

Three of the best prop bets in the NFL for Week 7.

By Shelby Dermer

Arizona Cardinals defensive end Darius Robinson (56) loses his helmet tackling Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) on a first down run during their football game Sunday, October 13, 2024, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Arizona Cardinals defensive end Darius Robinson (56) loses his helmet tackling Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) on a first down run during their football game Sunday, October 13, 2024, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. / Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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We’re already one-third of the way through the NFL regular season and we’re in full swing as teams try to pull away in the standings or simply stay afloat. 

Before we get to the three best spread bets to make, we’ll first take a look at two running backs and one team you should fade in the props market in Week 7. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Best Prop Bets for Week 7 

  • De'Von Achane UNDER 44.5 Rushing Yards 
  • Josh Jacobs UNDER 60.5 Rushing Yards 
  • Cincinnati Bengals Team Total UNDER 23.5 Points 

De'Von Achane UNDER 44.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The Indianapolis Colts have allowed the most rushing yards to running backs (717) in the AFC this season, but we’ll hold off on Achane’s resurgence with the state of Miami’s putrid offense since Tua Tagovailoa went down in Week 2. 

Over the last three games without Tagovailoa, Achane has combined for just 53 total rushing yards on 24 attempts. Despite the bye week, Achane is still in the NFL’s concussion protocol and suffered a mild high ankle sprain in the season-opener. Despite being back in the lineup, there’s a chance Achane could see more of a timeshare in the Miami backfield.

Rookie speedster Jaylen Wright and veteran Raheem Mostert each ran for 80-plus yards with Achane sidelined in Miami’s ugly Week 5 over the New England Patriots. If Achane returns, the backfield is just crowded and Mike McDaniel could ride whichever running back has the hot hand against Indianapolis. We’re betting it won’t be Achane as he’s found little running room (3.3 yards per carry) this season. 

Josh Jacobs UNDER 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Jacobs has had back-to-back golden opportunities to rack up rushing yards against the Rams (32nd against the run) and Cardinals (29th). Given 37 rushing attempts, Jacobs only managed 3.64 yards per carry. 

Jacobs has gone over this rushing total in four of six games this season, but he’s been held under four yards per carry in three of the last four contests. Green Bay’s offense is explosive through the air, but have lacked consistency on the ground, ranking just 22nd in run-blocking win rate. 

Green Bay is matched up against the Houston Texans Sunday, which boasts an underrated defense that is No. 4 in run-stop win rate and have allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards to running backs this season. 

Cincinnati Bengals Team Total UNDER 23.5 Points (-108)

This has simply been a one-sided rivalry with Cleveland winning nine of the last 11 matchups since the start of the 2018 season. Yes, no one wants to bet on the Cleveland offense and for good reason. DeShaun Watson has been an absolute disaster for Cleveland and the Browns just shipped off his No. 1 receiver, sending Amari Cooper to the Buffalo Bills this week. 

Instead, we’re going to focus on the Cleveland defense in this matchup against Joe Burrow. Under Burrow, the Bengals haven’t scored 24-plus points against the Browns since his rookie season in 2020 in a 71-point shootout. In Burrow’s last four performances against Cleveland - a venue the Bengals haven’t won in since 2017 - Cincinnati has averaged just 13.75 points per game. 

The Bengals’ offense was red hot going into last Sunday’s showdown against the New York Giants. The Bengals may have saved their season with a victory, but the Giants were still able to harass Burrow in the process with four sacks. 

Cleveland, which ranks No. 3 in the NFL in pass-rush win rate led by Myles Garrett and have allowed 23 points or less four times this season, can follow that same formula to turn this game into a low-scoring rock fight. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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