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NFL Best Prop Bets for Wild Card Round (Target Bo Nix, Jaylen Warren)

Here are 3 prop bets to consider for Wild Card Weekend.

By Shelby Dermer

Jan 5, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) scrambles with the ball in the second quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Jan 5, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) scrambles with the ball in the second quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
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The wait is over. The race for the Lombardi Trophy begins this weekend in the Wild Card Round.

While the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs sit at home, 12 teams will be in action looking to move to the next round of the bracket. 

We’ve gone over ATS picks to make and a 6-point, 2-team teaser, now it’s time to look at three prop bets to consider for the first round.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Best Prop Bets for Wild Card Round 

  • Bo Nix OVER 25.5 Rushing Yards 
  • Jaylen Warren OVER 20.5 Receiving Yards 
  • Will Dissly UNDER 3.5 Catches 

Bo Nix OVER 25.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

It’s a high-pressure game for the rookie in his first playoff start. The Broncos are a large underdog (8.5 points) heading east to take on the No. 2 Buffalo Bills. 

Nix has shown his willingness to tuck it and take off this season. With the spread at 8.5, the game lends itself to more drop backs for Nix, whose attempts prop is 35.5 (-115/-110). The path is there for Nix to take what he can on the ground and avoid mistakes through the air. 

Nix’s rushing numbers decreased over a four-game late-season stretch where he ran just nine times for nine yards. Over the last four games of the regular season, with Denver knocking on the door of a playoff berth, Nix took what he could on the ground. 

During that stretch, Nix averaged 31.5 rushing yards on 6.2 attempts. He went for 31 yards in a loss to Cincinnati, then ran for 47 in Week 18 to help Denver secure the No. 7 seed. 

Jaylen Warren OVER 20.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Pittsburgh’s biggest issue over its four-game losing streak to end the regular season was ball security. Russell Wilson is a veteran quarterback who knows the Steelers can ill-afford to commit turnovers, especially in a road divisional playoff game. 

This number is right at Warren’s receiving average for the year, but it’s time for Pittsburgh to ride the hot hand. Najee Harris stumbled down the stretch and now faces Baltimore’s top-ranked run defense where the Ravens struggle is defending pass-catchers out of the backfield. 

Baltimore allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs during the regular season and Warren went over this receiving yardage prop in both matchups against the Ravens during the regular season. In those tilts, he combined for nine receptions for 71 yards. Wilson has a nice check-down option in Warren, which he’ll opt to take to avoid costly turnovers and sacks. 

Will Dissly UNDER 3.5 Catches (-165)

For the majority of the regular season, the Chargers’ offense featured a lackluster group of pass-catchers and Dissly took a pivotal role as a veteran security blanket for Justin Herbert. 

LA’s offense is rounding into form, though, and a once sub-par group of wide receivers looks better than its ever been this season with the playoffs around the corner. That’s good for the Chargers overall but bad for Dissly, who went under this receptions prop in three of the last four games of the regular season.

Over that stretch, Dissly combined for just nine receptions for 82 yards and was shutout against Atlanta. Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston have been on the rise and Dissly faces a Houston defense that allowed the seventh-fewest catches to opposing tight ends this season. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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