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NFL Best Prop Bets for Week 11 (Target Pat Freiermuth, Bo Nix)

Here are three prop bets to consider in the NFL for Week 11.

By Shelby Dermer

Nov 10, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) throws a pass during the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Nov 10, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) throws a pass during the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
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Time flies and the NFL schedule roars past the halfway point and into the playoff push. 

Another loaded NFL slate kicks off tonight in Philadelphia. We’ve already gone over three potential against-the-spread picks to make, so now it’s time to go over a trio of props to consider in Week 11.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Best Prop Bets for Week 11

  • Pat Freiermuth OVER 2.5 Receptions 
  • Bo Nix (+32.5) vs. Kirk Cousins: Head-to-Head Passing Yards (-115)
  • Justin Herbert UNDER 0.5 Interceptions

Pat Freiermuth OVER 2.5 Receptions (-125)

After being held to two catches in three consecutive games, Freiermuth snagged all three of his targets for a modest 17 yards (including a touchdown) last week against Washington. 

He’s now gone over this catch prop in six of nine games this season and is building a rapport with Russell Wilson. In three games with Wilson as the starter, Freiermuth has caught 7-of-8 targets. 

Wilson has added an improved aerial attack to Pittsburgh’s offense and it’s one that could have a big game against a leaky Baltimore secondary. The Ravens are stout against the run (No. 1 in the NFL) but rank dead last against the pass by a wide margin and have allowed the most catches to opposing tight ends this season (63).

Bo Nix (+32.5) vs. Kirk Cousins: Head-to-Head Passing Yards (-115)

DraftKings offers an interesting spread bet on the passing yards of each quarterback in a matchup. In Denver this weekend, Kirk Cousins is favored to throw 32.5 more passing yards than rookie Bo Nix. 

We’re backing Nix in that head-to-head matchup and it comes down to pass rush. The Falcons are dreadful in generating a pass rush, which will allow Nix to sit back and the pocket and find open receivers. Nix has been hitting his stride as he leads all rookies in touchdowns, completions and passing yards. 

On the other side, we know Denver is going to bring the heat against Cousins, who is one of the most immobile quarterbacks in the NFL. With the pressure disparity, look for Cousins to have less time to dice up a formidable Denver defense while Nix makes plays in the pocket. 

Justin Herbert UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (-135)

This price comes with an implied probability of 57.45% that Herbert won’t throw an interception against the Cincinnati Bengals this Sunday. Herbert has been ultra-careful with the football all season and has thrown 210 consecutive passes without an interception. 

Herbert has thrown 11 touchdowns against just one interception this year, a pick that came in a 26-3 win over Carolina back in Week 2. At home this season, Herbert has a passer rating of 103.5 with five touchdowns and no interceptions and the Bengals’ defense offers little resistance. 

Outside of Trey Hendrickson, Cincinnati struggles mightily to generate any pressure on the opposing quarterback. Even if they do get free, Herbert has great ability to throw from outside the pocket on off-script plays or tuck it in run. 

Cincinnati has gone three consecutive games without an interception and have just six on the year. Four of those six have been against quarterbacks who might not play another snap this season (Andy Dalton, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Daniel Jones).

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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