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NFL Best Prop Bets for Week 8 (Target Javonte Williams, Fade Nick Chubb)

Looking at three prop bets to consider for Week 8. 

By Shelby Dermer

Oct 17, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33) scores a touchdown against New Orleans Saints safety Tyrann Mathieu (32) during the second quarter at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images
Oct 17, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33) scores a touchdown against New Orleans Saints safety Tyrann Mathieu (32) during the second quarter at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images / Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images
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Before we get to the three best spread bets to make in Week 8, we’ll first examine some prop bets to consider. 

This week, we’ll follow the game script to bet on a pair of AFC running backs while buying into the hype of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams ahead of Sunday’s showdown with the Commanders. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Best Prop Bets for Week 8

  • Javonte Williams OVER 62.5 Rushing Yards
  • Nick Chubb UNDER 46.5 Rushing Yards 
  • Caleb Williams OVER 226.5 Passing Yards 

Javonte Williams OVER 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

We’re going back to the well with Williams, who nearly doubled his rushing yardage prop (45.5) last week against the Saints with a season-high 88 yards and a couple touchdowns in a 33-10 Denver win. 

Denver has ballooned to a 9.5-point favorite over the Carolina Panthers this weekend with the news that former No. 1 pick Bryce Young is back in the starting lineup with Andy Dalton sidelined. We’ll stick with Williams’ game-script formula that worked out in Week 7. In Denver’s four victories this season, Williams is averaging 58 rushing yards per game. That average includes a 12-yard performance on just five attempts in Week 3 against Tampa Bay. Williams has received double-digit carries in each of Denver’s last three wins and has averaged 73.3 yards per carry as he looks the healthiest he’s been since suffering a brutal knee injury two years ago. 

With Denver favored by nearly double digits in this matchup, the game script lines up perfectly for Williams to have another big afternoon. The Panthers are dead last in rushing defense, giving up 162.1 yards per game on the ground. With Denver projected to be nursing a big lead, we like the volume Williams should get in this matchup and would consider testing the waters with some alternative rushing yardage props like over 75.5 (+175) or 95.5 (+450).

Nick Chubb UNDER 46.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

This is another game-script play with the Browns hosting the Ravens this weekend. Cleveland, which lost starting quarterback DeShaun Watson for the season, is currently an 8.5-point underdog. Sportsbooks are projecting the Browns to be playing from behind a lot on Sunday and that’s not good news for an offense that has yet to score 20 points in a game. 

Chubb was a feel-good story last week in his season debut after suffering a brutal knee injury early in the 2023 campaign. Chubb came back and scored Cleveland’s first touchdown of the game, but that overshadowed the standout running back finishing the afternoon with just 22 yards on 11 attempts against a sub-par Cincinnati defense. 

Now, Chubb faces a Baltimore defense that has been average overall but elite against the run. The Ravens are No. 1 in the NFL against the run, allowing just 68.4 yards per game. The Browns have struggled in the trenches all season and rank 26th in run-block win rate and 29th in rushing offense (94.3 yards per game). 

Additionally, starting running backs have just not had room to run against this Baltimore defense. Part of that is the Ravens’ offense opening up big leads which has forced opposing teams to air it out in comeback mode. Should we expect anything different on Sunday? Baltimore has not allowed a running back to go over this prop all season with Cincinnati’s Chase Brown (12 carries, 46 yards) coming the closest. No. 1 running backs are averaging just 35.2 yards per game against Baltimore this season. Is a veteran running back coming off a catastrophic knee injury the one to break this trend? We’re betting against it. 

Caleb Williams OVER 226.5 Passing Yards (-115)

There were obvious growing pains for the No. 1 overall pick in April’s draft as Williams posted a sub-50 QBR in each of his four starts. Williams has put up nice numbers, though, with a pair of 300-yard games, nine touchdowns and just three interceptions over the last four contests. 

Williams finished with 226 passing yards in the Bears’ beatdown of the Jaguars in London in his last appearance. He did throw for four touchdowns in that matchup and has now recorded a passer rating of 100-plus in three consecutive starts. 

We’re riding the upward trajectory of the rookie in a home run spot against a sub-par Washington Commanders defense this Sunday in what could be a shootout if No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels can play through a rib injury. Williams gets to face a Washington defense that’s been getting torched by competent offenses this season, though a few lackluster opponents (Cleveland, Carolina) has led to the numbers looking a little more respectable. 

The Commanders’ defense is hurting with absences, too. Defensive back Kevon Seymour is suspended for six games and Washington placed two defensive linemen (Jonathan Allen, Javontae Jean-Baptiste) on injured reserve last week. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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