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NFL Best Spread Picks for Week 10 (Target New Orleans, Denver)

Here are the three best ATS picks in the NFL for Week 10.

By Shelby Dermer

Nov 3, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) looks to pass in the third quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
Nov 3, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) looks to pass in the third quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
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We’re officially in the home stretch of the NFL’s regular season. The NFL trade deadline has passed and the second half of the regular season kicks off Thursday night and we have a good idea of what teams are at this point in the year. 

Here are three best against the spread picks to make for Week 10. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Best Spread Picks for Week 10 

  • New Orleans Saints (+3.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons 
  • Denver Broncos (+8) at Kansas City Chiefs 
  • Arizona Cardinals (-1) vs. New York Jets 

New Orleans Saints (+3.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons 

The New Orleans Saints have crashed and burned after they were one of the darlings of the NFL after a 2-0 start. The last straw was Sunday’s 23-22 loss to the Carolina Panthers. 

However, teams typically get a nice bump the week after firing a head coach. Darren Rizzi is the team’s interim head coach and New Orleans is set up in a nice spot as a home divisional underdog. In their first game with an interim head coach, teams have gone 22-17 ATS since 2003 and 8-3 since 2020. 

The Saints have been competitive in every game that quarterback Derek Carr starts and finishes with three losses by a combined six points. Atlanta might be surging right now with five wins over the last six weeks, but this is still a squad that won a 26-24 dogfight over Atlanta back in Week 4 with a walk-off field goal after an improbable game-winning drive.

New Orleans’ loss to Carolina was embarrassing, but it’s hard to ignore the Saints’ performance in the stats. New Orleans won the first-down battle (25-15), outgained Carolina by 181 yards (427-246) and ran for nearly 200 yards, yet somehow lost a game they would win a large chunk of the time. New Orleans gets the bounce back this week. 

Denver Broncos (+8) at Kansas City Chiefs 

The Kansas City Chiefs are simply inevitable. By hook or by crook, Kansas City continues to find a way to stay unbeaten this season after a walk-off overtime touchdown Monday night against Tampa Bay. 

Off a short week, we’ll fade the Chiefs in this divisional spot. Kansas City has won by seven points or less six times this season and we could see a flat spot off a short week with a big matchup at Buffalo on deck for Week 11. It’s time to buy-low on the Denver Broncos after they were blitzed by the Baltimore Ravens on the road last Sunday.

Denver is still firmly in the playoff mix and won’t have to go up against a freight train offense like Baltimore this week. Instead, they’ll line up against a Kansas City offense they’re familiar with and have had success against in recent history. 

Last season, the Denver defense allowed just 28 total points in two games against Mahomes and company. They have the ability to muck this game up and hang within the big number. 

Arizona Cardinals (-1) vs. New York Jets 

It’s time to start taking the Arizona Cardinals for real. At 5-4 and having won three straight, the Cardinals are just +170 to win the NFC West and just a small underdog (+115) to make the playoffs. 

The Cardinals had one of the more brutal schedules in the league over the first half of the season. If you look at Arizona’s nine opponents, only one of them has a losing record and that’s the Miami Dolphins, which is a playoff-caliber team when starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is healthy. He was healthy Oct. 27, when Arizona traveled across the country and pulled out a 28-27 win over the Dolphins. 

The Jets started the long road to save their season with a 21-13 win over the Houston Texans on Halloween, but New York still drastically struggles to protect the passer and Arizona is coming off a Sunday where they made Caleb Williams miserable in the pocket. 

Arizona has opted for a ground-and-pound approach on offense while Kyler Murray has been able to make key plays when needed. Last week, the Cardinals racked up 213 rushing yards and three touchdowns against a formidable Chicago defense. Arizona now matches up against a Jets’ defense that has been gashed by the run in recent weeks with a banged-up defense. Lay the point with Arizona. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change. 

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