NFL Best Spread Picks for Week 11 (Target These 3 AFC Underdogs)
The second half of the regular season roars on and we’ve got a new loaded slate to attack from a betting perspective in a week littered with playoff implications.
Here are three bets against the spread to make for Week 11.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Best Spread Picks for Week 11
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Cleveland Browns (+1) at New Orleans Saints
- Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) vs. Baltimore Ravens
This line has been a see-sawing from 3 to 3.5 over the last few days, but we’re going to roll with the home underdog. This rivalry typically lends itself to close, low-scoring games.
Since the start of the 2020 season, Pittsburgh is 7-1 against Baltimore straight up with all eight games decided by seven points or less. Seven consecutive matchups in this rivalry have failed to reach 40 total points. If we’re going to get another old-school, gritty AFC North battle, we’ll take Mike Tomlin and the points given his track record. Tomlin is 20-6-3 ATS as a home underdog over his career, recently blowing out the New York Jets as a 1.5-point primetime underdog Oct. 20.
Pittsburgh’s defense will need an all-around effort to keep up with Baltimore’s top-ranked scoring offense, but the Steelers’ aerial attack could help them keep up. Russell Wilson has posted a 105.9 passer rating with six touchdowns and just one interception over his 3-0 run as the starter, and he’ll face a Baltimore defense that is last in the NFL in passing yards allowed.
Cleveland Browns (+1) at New Orleans Saints
We’re backing another AFC North underdog, even if this team isn’t as pretty. The Browns are coming off a bye week and it’s Jameis Winston’s return to Louisiana after spending four seasons with the Saints.
New Orleans got a one-week bounce with an interim head coach, beating Atlanta last week. However, the Saints were the beneficiary of three missed field goals by Falcons’ kicker Younghoe Koo. Secondly, Derek Carr was kept clean against an Atlanta defense that struggles to create pressure (No. 26 in pass-rush win rate). Led by Myles Garrett, the Browns can get heat on the quarterback (No. 6 in pass-rush win rate) and Carr should be under duress for the majority of the afternoon.
On the offensive end, Atlanta’s missed kicks hid the fact that they had a 25-14 advantage over the Saints in first downs and racked up 468 total yards with a 300-yard passer and 100-yard rusher. Cleveland’s offense should be able to move the ball against a sub-par Saints defense and coming off a bye, Nick Chubb had another week to shake the rust off and could be in line for a nice day.
Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5) at Miami Dolphins
It’s hard to bet on the Las Vegas Raiders having lost five consecutive games. This is a play on the Raiders’ significant rest advantage. Las Vegas last took the field in a lopsided loss in Cincinnati Nov. 3.
The Raiders are well-rested after a bye week and don’t have to travel. Meanwhile, the Dolphins had to travel to the west coast for Monday Night Football and are on a short week before another cross-country flight to Las Vegas.
Las Vegas’ quarterback situation is still in flux and we don’t know yet if it will be Gardner Minshew or Desmond Ridder under center. Defensively, the Raiders can still generate pressure. Las Vegas is No. 3 in pass-rush win rate and speeding up Tua Tagovailoa is a good formula to keep Miami’s high-powered offense on the board. Tagovailoa was sacked three times and committed two turnovers in a clunky performance in Monday’s win over the Rams.
Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.