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NFL Best Spread Picks for Week 14 (Target these 3 Underdogs)

A look at three ATS picks to make in the NFL for Week 14.

By Shelby Dermer

Nov 28, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush (10) runs for the end-zone during the second quarter against the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images
Nov 28, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush (10) runs for the end-zone during the second quarter against the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images / Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images
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The NFL rolls into December and the playoff push for several teams continues while other franchises turn their attention toward the offseason, free agency and the NFL Draft. 

After an early-afternoon slate with a slew of big spreads in Week 14, the late-afternoon matchups include several projected tight matchups with a spread of four points or less. 

Without further ado, let’s dive into the Week 14 card and look at three against the spread picks to make this week. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Best Spread Picks for Week 14 

  • Chicago Bears (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers 
  • Los Angeles Chargers (+4) at Kansas City Chiefs 
  • Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals 

Chicago Bears (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Teams will typically get a nice bump the week after firing a head coach. We saw this last month when New Orleans let go of Dennis Allen and responded with interim coach Darren Rizzi to beat the Atlanta Falcons as a 3.5-point underdog. Why expect less with Chicago? 

The Bears fired Matt Eberflus after coming up short on Thanksgiving to the Detroit Lions. Prior to his dismissal, the Bears had covered three consecutive games as underdogs with three losses by 3 points or less. The impressive part of that stretch has been Caleb Williams, who has combined to throw for 5 touchdowns and zero interceptions under Thomas Brown.

Now the interim head coach, Brown will still be calling plays for Williams and the Bears go up against a team that may have just realized its chances of a playoff run are over. San Francisco has lost three straight, including the last two by a combined 53 points, and lost its top 2 running backs to injured reserve. Though it's layered in a coach’s firing, one team has momentum and the other is looking forward to turning the page to next season. 

Los Angeles Chargers (+4) at Kansas City Chiefs 

The Chiefs simply always find a way. With its back against the wall last Friday, Kansas City got a controversial fumble recovery in the waning seconds of regulation to avoid what would’ve been an embarrassing loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. The week before, the Chiefs needed a field goal at the horn to beat the lowly Panthers. 

Kansas City has not covered as a favorite since a 26-13 victory over New Orleans in Week 5. They might have some weird voodoo that allows them to escape in all of these close games, but we’ll gladly take four points with the Chargers.

Los Angeles responded to its loss to Baltimore with a defensive-minded win over the Atlanta Falcons where they intercepted Kirk Cousins four times. The Chargers have a defense that can cause problems for Kansas City. The No. 1 scoring defense in the league held Mahomes and company to just 17 points back in September.

Since then, the Chargers offense has hit its stride with Justin Herbert developing a rapport with a sub-par group of pass-catchers and the Kansas City defense has taken a step back having allowed 24-plus points in three of the last five games. 

Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals 

Like the 49ers, the Cincinnati Bengals have realized at this point that they have to turn the page to next year much earlier than they would’ve liked. The season hit its lowest point on Sunday when they allowed a struggling Pittsburgh offense to accumulate over 500 total yards in a 44-38 win. 

Cincinnati now has little motivation heading into this game while the Cowboys are showing some life after back-to-back division wins. While also having the rest advantage from their Thanksgiving win, Dallas has a defense that can rush the passer and cause issues for Joe Burrow, who is putting up MVP numbers while its defense gives up points in droves.

Cooper Rush has had nearly a month as a starter and is finding his footing after Dallas put up just 16 total points in his first two starts. Rush can feast against a Cincinnati defense that makes all opposing quarterbacks feel comfortable keeping the Cowboys within the number and even threatening to pull off the upset. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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