NFL Best Spread Picks for Week 16 (Target These 3 AFC Underdogs)

Week 16 started out with a thriller on the west coast as the Los Angeles Chargers rallied for a pivotal 34-27 victory over the Denver Broncos. 

We’re quickly charging toward Christmas and to the postseason in the NFL calendar, so it’s important for bettors to take advantage of the waning weeks of the regular season.

Here are three ATS picks to consider in Week 16. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Best Spread Picks for Week 16 

• Houston Texans (+3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
• Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders 
• Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens

Houston Texans (+3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs finally covered a spread last week but was their 21-7 win over the Cleveland Browns that impressive? Kansas City’s starting running backs managed just 77 yards on 26 attempts and Patrick Mahomes completed just 50% of his passes for 159 yards.

The Chiefs simply avoided the self-inflicted wounds that caused Jameis Winston (three interceptions) to lose his starting job. Despite an ankle scare, Mahomes was a full participant in practice and it caused the Chiefs to flip from 2-point underdogs to small favorites north of a field goal. 

Still this Chiefs’ offense has not been impressive and could we see the Houston defense turning the corner? The Texans came out of the bye week and suffocated Miami in a 20-12 victory last week. Houston was struggling before the bye, but this is still a defense that ranks No. 1 in pass-rush win rate and No. 2 in run-stop win rate. Kansas City’s running backs don’t inflict much concern and Houston has the No. 6 pass defense in the league. 

These are two of the top-10 scoring defenses in the NFL, so should we expect a rock fight? Houston’s season-long offensive numbers have not lived up to the preseason hype, but having Nico Collins back has made a huge difference. Since Collins returns in Week 11, Houston has put up 26 points per game. 

Houston has embraced the challenge of an underdog, going 2-1 ATS in that spot while Kansas City has gone just 2-5 ATS as a favorite at Arrowhead Stadium. Those trends continue Saturday. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders 

A matchup that could shake up draft position. Both of these fanbases are probably hoping their squad drops this matchup in the desert Sunday. It’s hard to picture the Las Vegas Raiders, losers of 10 consecutive games, as a favorite in any matchup. 

The Raiders defense looked like a threat against Atlanta, which has now benched quarterback Kirk Cousins. However, the Raiders’ offense is still a disaster as Desmond Ridder (27.1 QBR) has struggled and Aidan O’Connell, who could be back for this matchup, hasn’t been much better. 

The Raiders have the fourth-worst scoring offense (17.5 points per game), can’t produce in the passing game with a carousel of bad quarterbacks and are dead last in rushing. Give the advantage to the Jacksonville defense, despite getting shredded by Aaron Rodgers last week. Mac Jones has been serviceable enough with three consecutive games with at least 220 passing yards. Despite four interceptions in the last two games, Jones gets to face a Raiders’ defense that is 31st in takeaways (9) this season. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens 

The “bet Mike Tomlin as an underdog” method failed last week as Pittsburgh fell flat to the Eagles on the road. Is it time to back the Steelers again in an AFC North rematch? 

This rivalry continuously produces close, low-scoring affairs. In the last matchup, the Steelers’ defense set the tone in an 18-16 home win Nov. 17. The Steelers are now 8-1 against the Ravens since the start of the 2020 season and eight consecutive editions of this rivalry have failed to reach 40 total points. These two teams and coaches are very familiar with each other and we’ll take the bounce-back spot in Pittsburgh while Baltimore returned from the bye week and trounced the Giants. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.