Betsided

NFL Best Spread Picks for Week 6 (2 Home Underdogs to Target, 1 to Fade)

Looking at the three best ATS pick to make in the NFL for Week 6.

By Shelby Dermer

Oct 6, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) passes the ball against the Seattle Seahawks during the first half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
Oct 6, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) passes the ball against the Seattle Seahawks during the first half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images / Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
facebooktwitterreddit

The calendar has flipped to October and the NFL season is chugging along toward the halfway point. We’ve already gone over some prop bets to consider for this week’s slate, and now we’ll rundown three teams to bet on against the spread.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Best Spread Picks for Week 6 

  • Denver Broncos (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
  • Detroit Lions (-3) at Dallas Cowboys 
  • New York Giants (+3.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals 

Denver Broncos (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Denver Broncos defense is getting it done in a big way for a team that entered the season with very low expectations. Denver, winners of three straight, took care of one pedestrian offense in Week 6 by running away from the Las Vegas Raiders. They have a great chance to do the same thing when the Los Angeles Chargers come to Mile High on Sunday. 

The Chargers have the rest advantage in this matchup, but do they have the weapons to be laying a field goal on the road against one of the league’s best defenses? The Broncos rank No. 5 in the NFL against the pass and No. 10 against the run. If LA wants to air it out, which has not been their style so far this season, Denver has the secondary to blanket the Chargers’ underwhelming group of pass-catchers. 

On the ground, J.K. Dobbins has been off to a great start, but the Broncos’ run defense has improved after a shaky September and has limited starting running backs to just 3.1 yards per carry over the last two weeks. 

Denver’s defense has the ability to keep any game close and rookie Bo Nix is coming off the best game of his young career. In a matchup with the lowest total on the board for Week 6, grab the points with Denver, which is 2-1-1 ATS as an underdog this season with a pair of outright wins. 

Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys 

From a projected rock fight in Denver to a projected shootout in Dallas. The Lions-Cowboys matchup has the highest total (52) on the board for Week 6. Which offense is well-equipped to sustain its success in this matchup and flood the scoreboard? 

It’s not the Cowboys, which statistically blew out the Steelers on Sunday Night Football but were hampered by ill-timed turnovers. The Dallas offense could have a nice night against a sub-par Detroit defense, but the Lions are still a top-10 pass-rushing team and the Cowboys struggle mightily to run the football. 

On the other side, the matchup sets up perfectly for a high-flying Lions offense with two weeks to prepare. The Dallas defense has held back-to-back opponents under 20 points, but the New York Giants settled for five field goals in primetime and the Steelers aren’t exactly a juggernaut with Justin Fields running the show. 

Dallas was able to survive in Week 5 without some of its top players on the defensive side of the ball. That won’t be the case in this matchup as Jared Goff - coming off an 18-for-18 performance in Week 4 - should have plenty of time to throw. Most quarterbacks struggle under pressure, but Goff really goes downhill when the pass rush gets home. 

Thankfully, Detroit’s offensive line is No. 4 in pass-blocking win rate and they often find a good balance running the ball between Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The Cowboys’ defense isn’t fixed after back-to-back wins and no Micah Parsons will loom large in this matchup as the Lions’ offense dominates. 

New York Giants (+3.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals 

Was there a more impressive showing in Week 5 than the New York Giants? For the second time in the young season, the Giants went on the road and won outright as an underdog of nearly a touchdown. Momentum is on their side as they return to Metlife Stadium in what should be a rowdy primetime crowd for Sunday Night Football.

You can make the case the Giants have been underrated thus far. Offensively, Daniel Jones and company are only averaging 17.8 points per game, but have moved the ball well over the last few weeks. The Giants simply need to convert in the redzone. New York ranks 26th in redzone touchdown rate this season, but they have a golden opportunity to right those wrongs against a putrid Cincinnati defense. 

The Bengals’ defense is last in the AFC in sacks (6) this season and are making plenty of offenses comfortable. Opponents are scoring touchdowns in the redzone at a 66.7% clip against the Bengals’ defense, which is 25th in the NFL. No matter which way you slice it, Cincinnati has been awful on defense ranking 19th against the pass, 30th against the run and 31st in scoring. 

The Bengals are giving up 29 points per game while their offense is one of the best in football. New York has a great chance to neutralize that Cincinnati attack, though, with the Giants leading the NFL in sacks. 

The Bengals suffered a catastrophic division loss in Week 5 that could’ve completely flipped their season. Their backs have been up against the wall in several matchups this season and it hasn’t mattered. New York has the momentum and has been undervalued through the first five weeks. Take the home underdog. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

Home/NFL Picks