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NFL MVP Odds: Breaking Down Top Candidates After Week 8 (Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson Are Co-Favorites)

Checking out the MVP odds as the NFL season nears the halfway point.

By Shelby Dermer

Oct 27, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) passes against the Seattle Seahawks during the first quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
Oct 27, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) passes against the Seattle Seahawks during the first quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
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While it’s easy to get lost in game lines, player props, parlays and Super Bowl odds, there’s another everchanging way to attack the futures market and that is with a bet on the Most Valuable Player. 

The MVP has basically been reduced to a quarterback award with a signal-caller winning the honor in each of the last 11 years since Adrian Peterson’s insane 2012 season. 

Here’s a breakdown of the top candidates for the award as the season approaches the halfway point this week. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Regular Season MVP Odds (Top 20)

  • Josh Allen: +300
  • Lamar Jackson: +300
  • Patrick Mahomes: +600
  • Jared Goff: +800
  • Jalen Hurts: +1500
  • Jayden Daniels: +1600
  • Kyler Murray: +1800
  • C.J. Stroud: +1800
  • Derrick Henry: +2000
  • Sam Darnold: +2000
  • Brock Purdy: +2000
  • Joe Burrow: +2200
  • Kirk Cousins: +2800
  • Jordan Love: +3000
  • Baker Mayfield: +3500
  • Dak Prescott: +5000
  • Caleb Williams: +5000
  • Matthew Stafford: +7500
  • Geno Smith: +7500
  • Aaron Rodgers: +9000

Josh Allen joins Lamar Jackson atop leaderboard 

There are now two quarterbacks tied for the highest odds to be named the MVP after Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen jumped up to +300 after the Bills’ third-straight victory. 

Allen had a horrific two-game stretch where he combined to complete just 25-of-59 passes for just over 300 yards in losses to Baltimore and Houston. Allen has responded with a three-game winning streak where he’s combined for seven touchdowns and just one interception (his first all season). 

He is tied with Lamar Jackson at +300. Jackson has been a force all season as he’s No. 5 in the NFL in passing yards and second in passing touchdowns (17) and QBR (74.9). 

The Ravens had a hiccup last Sunday in a 29-24 loss to the Cleveland Browns, but Jackson still completed 60.5% of his passes for nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns with no turnovers. 

Here’s why Patrick Mahomes could be worth a bet despite lackluster stats 

NFL fans have been perplexed that Patrick Mahomes has remained near the top of the MVP leaderboard despite trending toward the worst statistical season of his career. 

Mahomes has dropped to the third-favorite at +600. Mahomes is only 16th in the NFL in passing yards (1,651) and he’s tied with Baker Mayfield for the most interceptions (9) on the year. Mahomes has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns (8), ranks 23rd in passer rating (84.9) and went back-to-back games without a touchdown pass before tossing two against the lowly Raiders last week. 

However, the Chiefs just continue to roll despite injuries to several playmakers, including star receiver Rashee Rice and starting running back Isiah Pacheco. Kansas City is 7-0 and trending toward the AFC playoffs having to go through Arrowhead Stadium. 

That’s the key. Mahomes has stayed near the top of the leaderboard despite poor stats. Do you think it’s more likely Mahomes continues to struggle from a statistical standpoint or will he turn it around? It’s tough to picture this trend of the NFL’s No. 1 quarterback putting up bad numbers continuing. If you think he’ll improve, then it’s worth a bet because this award typically goes to the quarterback on the league’s best team. 

Over the 11-year run of quarterbacks winning the MVP, the team of that quarterback has averaged 13 wins and has been the No. 1 seed in the playoffs 11 times. The quarterback of a non-No. 1 seed has not been named MVP since Matt Ryan in 2016, when the Falcons were the No. 2 seed. 

Jared Goff rounds out clear-cut top 4 

The Lions are an absolute wagon right now and Jared Goff rounds out a clear-cut top 4 in the MVP market at +800. Jalen Hurts is No. 5 at a distant +1500. 

Goff is anchoring what looks to be an unstoppable offense that has averaged 43 points over the last four games. Over Detroit’s five-game winning streak, Goff has thrown 12 touchdowns against just one interception and he’s completing 74.1% of his passes this season. 

Goff could become a victim of volume. He missed the entire fourth quarter of last week’s blowout of Tennessee because of a lopsided score and was limited in possessions and possible yardage because of the stellar work of Detroit’s defense and special teams. 

The Lions have the league’s best tandem at running back, too, in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. 

Gibbs is No. 7 in the league in rushing yards and is churning out 6.4 yards per carry while Montgomery is an endzone magnet with seven rushing scores in seven games. 

Odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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