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2022-23 NBA MVP Opening Odds (Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid Lead the Way Before Free Agency)

By Peter Dewey

Luka Doncic and Joel Embiid.
Luka Doncic and Joel Embiid. / Mitchell Leff/GettyImages
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The NBA offseason is upon us, but that doesn’t mean we can take a way-too-early look at the futures market, specifically for the league’s MVP award, ahead of free agency beginning on Thursday, June 30. 

For the second straight year, Luka Doncic is entering as the favorite to win MVP, and it’s worth noting that Doncic made a late run at the award in the 2021-22 season despite missing time earlier in the season with an ankle injury. 

Winning the MVP award is sometimes a fight for who will be available the most of the best players, as only a few players have won the league’s MVP playing fewer than 70 games. And those that have, were limited by a shortened season. 

  • Giannis Antetokunmpo (63 games) – 2019-20 season (was shortened by COVID-19 pandemic)
  • LeBron James (62 games) – 2011-12 season (66-game lockout season)
  • Karl Malone (49 games) – 1998-99 season (50-game lockout season)
  • Bill Walton (58 games) – 1977-78 season
  • Bill Russell (69 games) – 1957-58 season (72-game season)
  • Bob Cousy (64 games) – 1956-57 season (72-game season)

So essentially, playing a minimum of 85 percent of your team's games is necessary to win the MVP award. 

While I’m not making the criteria and just looking at the history, it’s a solid baseline to look at before making your MVP decision. 

Here are the opening odds from consensus sportsbook for the league’s MVP: 

Opening Odds to Win NBA MVP in 2022-23 Season

  • Luka Doncic: +475
  • Joel Embiid: +550
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo: +750
  • Ja Morant: +1000
  • Nikola Jokic: +1000
  • Kevin Durant: +1200
  • Jayson Tatum: +1200
  • Steph Curry: +1700
  • LeBron James: +2000
  • Devin Booker: +2200
  • Trae Young: +3000
  • Kawhi Leonard: +4000
  • Karl-Anthony Towns: +4500
  • Zion Williamson: +5000
  • Jimmy Butler: +5000
  • Anthony Edwards: +6000
  • Anthony Davis: +6000
  • Damian Lillard: +6000
  • LaMelo Ball: +7000
  • Donovan Mitchell: +8000
  • DeMar DeRozan: +8000
  • Chris Paul: +9000
  • Paul George: +9000
  • Kyrie Irving: +9000
  • Bradley Beal: +11000
  • Pascal Siakam: +11000

Free Agency Could Alter MVP Odds

The next few days are going to be crazy in the NBA, with several key players likely flipping teams, and it’s important to make sure you aren’t betting on a player that could see their role change. 

For example, the Atlanta Hawks have been rumored in Dejounte Murray trade talks, which would likely hurt some of Trae Young’s usage, even though the team would probably be better in the 2022-23 season. 

Another player to be careful of betting on is Donovan Mitchell, as the Utah Jazz could decide to blow up their roster or even trade Mitchell to a situation where he isn’t the No. 1 option. 

Damian Lillard May Be Best Value Pick for MVP 

If you’re looking for a crazy early-season longshot, the narrative is there for Damian Lillard. 

With Lillard missing most of the 2021-22 season, the Portland Trail Blazers became one of the worst teams in the NBA and traded away C.J. McCollum. 

Now, the Blazers have re-tooled their roster around Lillard with Josh Hart, Jerami Grant and rookie Shaedon Sharpe. There’s no guarantee that this team even makes the playoffs, but if they do and have a strong season, there’s a path for Lillard’s to be considered one of the more valuable players in the league.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

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