2022 Honda Classic Matchup Bets (Back Higgo, Knox & Bezuidenhout)
By Joe Summers
There's nothing better than hitting an outright golf winner, especially at a tournament with a wide-open field like the Honda Classic. But those are hard to do and our real bread-and-butter is in the matchup plays. It's a lot easier to just beat one other person than to beat 70, after all.
Our Ben Heisler put together an excellent betting preview and using the key statistics he identified, we can find value in a few matchups this weekend.
Garrick Higgo (-140) over Martin Kaymer
I detailed here why I like Higgo this weekend. He's an absolute bomber that excels at going to the green and is strong at both long and short approach shots. With a T25 and a T21 finish in his last two starts, he's trending up and I think he'll be in contention this weekend.
Kaymer, on the other hand, hasn't made a start yet this year after becoming a father and was in poor form the last time he played. He's made the cut just once in his last five starts and at such a difficult course, I think it'll take some time for him to shake off the rust.
Give me Higgo over Kaymer in my favorite bet of the tournament.
Russell Knox (-140) over Lee Westwood
Ben did a great job outlining why Russell Knox is a great play this week at +5000:
"Knox is outstanding off the tee, although not necessarily for bombing it. He ranks tops in the field in Good Drives Gained, No. 1 in greens-in-regulation, and 10th in fairways gained, so he's set up very well for this type of event. He also has the best score amongst anyone on the Tour on the Bear Trap, coming in at 6-under par throughout his career.
Knox also comes in second in SG: ball striking as well as in approach."
With two top-three finishes at this event under his belt, Knox is in good shape. His adversary in this matchup, Lee Westwood, is not. Westwood, who is asthmatic, has been candid about a bout with Covid in December that's still impacting his ability to breathe. He's been fantastic at this event in years' past, but we've seen the impacts COVID can have on athletes in all sports, let alone a 48-year old that is openly saying he's struggling with it.
I hope Westwood is fully recovered and that he's able to play well and feel great, but as bettors we have to look for edges and this is an edge.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+110) over Brian Harman
Bezuidenhout is coming off a missed cut at the Genesis which could be a bad thing, but maybe it just means he's well-rested! He's finished 17th or better in three of his last seven PGA starts and has a game that should fit PGA National well.
He's 34th on tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and 53rd in scrambling percentage. As we know from Ben's preview, those are two of the most important statistics when predicting success at the Honda.
Harman, meanwhile, is 148th in Strokes Gained: Approach and has finished better than 48th just three times in his last 10 starts.
I love getting plus money on a golfer that's in better form and fits the course better, so I'm taking Bezuidenhout to round out my best matchup bets of the weekend.