2022 MAC Football Preview, Best Bets: Buffalo Set for Bounce Back Season?

The MAC is a beautiful conference that provides mid-November Tuesday and Wednesday betting intrigue to you like nobody else can. So let's get a leg up on the competition and play some regualr season win totals.

Buffalo looks to bounce back in year two of the Maurice Linguist era, and has one of the most explosive receivers in the MAC, Quian Williams, on hand. On the other hand, Ball State finds themselves in the early stages of a rebuild with one of the lowest returning productions in the country. With that in mind, let's find some winners in the regular season win total market.

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Buffalo OVER 5.5 Wins (-110)

The Bulls were gutted by a late spring move from head coach Lance Leipold to Kansas, leaving new head coach Linguist a bit unprepared. However, with a host of transfers on both sides of the ball, I expect Buffalo to return to a bowl game, which it made in three straight seasons prior to last.

The team rebuilt its offensive line through the portal, bringing in the likes of Desmond Bessent (19 starts at San Diego State, missed last season at Rutgers due to injury) and transfers from FCS schools. At quarterback, Linguist brought in Cole Snyder, who was a backup at Rutgers last season.

Synder will likely be the starter under center and working with dynamite pass catcher Williams, who had 835 yards receiving last season. The team also brought in transfers from Arizona (Boobie Curry) and Louisville (Justin Marshall).

The defense has arguably the best player in the conference in James Paterson, who led the team in tackles last season. Overall, the defensive line picked up North Carolina transfer Ibrahim Kante to add to a group that returns three starters and helped generate 37 sacks in 2021.

Overall, the team had 21 transfers and ranks 30th in the nation, according to 247Sports. With a full season to build his program, Linguist can get this team back to bowl eligibility.

I expect the team to go 2-2 in non conference play, winning against Holy Cross and UMass. After that, conference play has good spots at Bowling Green and home for Akron.

The remaining MAC schedule includes at Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan while they play host to Miami (Ohio), Toledo and Kent State. 2-3 in the meat of the MAC schedule is required to get over this number if they are unable to upset at Coastal Carolina in Week 3.

There is upside on this team with so many transfers and a poor record last year (4-8), and I'll buy it as I think power ratings are undervaluing what can be one of the most talented groups in the MAC.

PICK: Buffalo OVER 5.5 Wins (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Ball State UNDER 5.5 Wins (-150)

This is pricey, but with the variance of the MAC, I'm looking to key in on specific teams and angles. Enter: Ball State.

The Cardinals lost their two most important offensive players in quarterback Drew Plitt and wideout Justin Hall, who had over 3,300 yards in five seasons in addition to a 2nd team All-MAC guard Curtis Blackwell. How do they make it work? They hope John Paddock can thrive as the successor to Plitt at QB.

Two years ago this team won the MAC Championship behind one of the best offenses in school history, now it's an unproven O with just six returning starters. However, even more questions come on the defensive side of the ball.

The team brings most of the contributions on the defensive line back, including Tavion Woodward, who had five sacks in six games last season. However, the rest of the defense has unproven players stepping in to key roles. They lost three of their starters in the secondary and their two starting linebackers.

In a transition year like this, it's tough to expect the same record as last year (6-7), leading me to this under.

There are likely wins on the schedule, including Murray State and UConn at home and a road game at Georgia Southern, but they draw a brutal MAC schedule. The team will likely need to win two of the three projected home games against Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan and Ohio to have a puncher's chance to go over, and all of those games are going to be lined within a one score.

On the road in conference play? They will likely be big underdogs to Central Michigan, Kent State, Toledo and Miami (Ohio), leaving very little room for error for a team with a bottom 20 returning production in the country.

If this number sits at five heading into the final week, there is an easy hedge opportunity on the Cardinals at Miami (Ohio) in the final week.

PICK: Ball State UNDER 5.5 Wins (-150) at DraftKings Sportsbook