The Home Run Derby is tonight, one of my favorite events in sports. There was nothing better than being a kid and having your own wiffleball derby in the backyard right before the pros would take over on TV.
The name of the game is the most home runs, but the real excitement comes from the longest, longball. We don’t just want to see who can squeak the most balls over the outfield fence at Dodgers Stadium, we want to see who can leave the yard.
Oh and as with anything in life, you can bet on it. Let’s take a look at the odds for the longest home run and make some picks to win a little bit of money off the spectacle.
Player to Hit the Longest Home Run in the Home Run Derby Odds
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (+200)
- Kyle Schwarber (+350)
- Juan Soto (+400)
- Pete Alonso (+650)
- Julio Rodriguez (+800)
- Corey Seager (+900)
- Albert Pujols (+1200)
- Jose Ramirez (+1500)
Home Run Derby Longest Home Run Prediction and Pick
First of all, the absolute disrespect that Jose Ramirez has to feel right now is immense. To be behind Albert Pujols who I’m pretty sure is 57 years old has to hurt. Though handicappers might be protecting themselves against the MLB potentially juicing the balls for Pujols. The MLB will either try that or let him walk up there with a corked bat like the 17 year old who snuck onto a little league roster and hits the ball from Williamsport to Philadelphia.
We can exclude Pujols and Ramirez in my mind. Corey Seager’s longest home run of the year ranks 90th in the MLB, Pete Alonso, the two-time champ has hit a ball 489 in a game, but his strategy seems to be, conserve energy and not go for the longest bomb. He’s a rightful favorite in the event and a rightful longshot for longest homer.
Now, let’s get to the real contenders. Beyond giving betting advice I figured I could use this forum to let you watch a few moonshots with me.
We begin with the favorite, who has launched the sixth longest home run of the statcast era at 495 feet. Ronald Acuna Jr. also has the 10th longest homer in the league this season at 464.
Though Acuna Jr. doesn’t provide enough value at those odds especially in a stacked field.
Kyle Schwarber has crushed the ball season, he has the sixth longest home run and the fourth hardest hit. My lasting memory of Schwarber crushing baseballs is him sending a ball into the Allegheny River and breaking my heart. That ball has never landed and my heart has never been repaired.
But it’s not October yet so Schwarber hasn’t really heated up.
Julio Rodriguez is the new kid on the block, participating in his rookie season. He has hit the 35th longest homer this year at 450, but he seems to have a sense for the moment and unreal power. Oh yeah and that was his FIRST MLB HOME RUN, and off the NL Cy Young favorite! He may be worth something as a longshot.
However, my pick to hit the longest shot of the derby is Juan Soto. The man set the record for longest home run derby home run last year in the event when we sent a ball 520 feet.
Pick: Juan Soto +400
Follow all Josh’s bets HERE