2022 MLB Home Run Derby Odds: Who Will Hit the Most Total Home Runs?

The Home Run Derby is one of baseball’s most exciting events, and you can wager on just about anything at various sportsbooks for tonight’s contest. 

When looking at the props, I noticed that each player’s OVER/UNDER could leave some value for who will lead the Derby in homers tonight. 

Here is the OVER/UNDER for each player’s home run total in this year’s contest via DraftKings: 

Home Run Derby Odds (Each Player’s OVER/UNDER)

• Albert Pujols 18.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
• Jose Ramirez 19.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. 22.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
• Julio Rodriguez 26.5 (Over -125/Under+105)
• Corey Seager 28.5 (Over -125/Under +105)
• Juan Soto 33.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
• Kyle Schwarber 38.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
• Pete Alonso 38.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Oddsmakers Expect Kyle Schwarber to Hit Most Home Runs in Home Run Derby

Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso both have the same number (38.5), but Schwarber’s is slightly juiced to the OVER, suggesting he is expected to hit the most homers in this year’s Derby. 

Alonso and Schwarber are solid picks to hit the most homers, as they are the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds and should advance to at least the second round. However, there is one player I think has a ton of value. 

Bet OVER on Ronald Acuna Jr.’s Home Run Prop

Ronald Acuna Jr. may only last one round in the Derby, as he is matched up with the two-time champion Alonso, but several players have cleared 30-plus homers in one round in the Derby. 

I’m not saying Acuna will go that far, but 23 seems very doable for a player who leads baseball in average home run distance this season. 

I think Acuna at least gives Alonso a run for his money in the first round, and he certainly will clear this if he pulls off the upset.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.