2022 National League East Division Prediction, Odds: (Mets Are Favorites in Crowded Division)
By Reed Wallach
UPDATE: This story was written before Jacob deGrom experienced shoulder tightness and was scheduled to undergo an MRI.
The National League East is one of the most competitive divisions in all of baseballs with a case to be made for four of five teams winning the title in 2022.
The New York Mets spending spree was the story of the MLB offseason, acquiring the likes of Max Scherzer to compliment Jacob deGrom, but the Atlanta Braves are the defending World Series champions and retooled by acquiring Matt Olson and should have Ronald Acuna Jr. in about May.
Can the Philadelphia Phillies, who have reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper put it all together in 2022? What about the Miami Marlins, who are two years removed from a postseason appearance?
There's a ton of intrigue around the NL East this season, so let's check out the win total prediction for each team from WynnBET Sportsbook:
NL Central Division Win Total Predictions
- New York Mets: 89.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
- Atlanta Braves: 89 (Over -110/Under -110)
- Philadelphia Phillies: 86.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
- Miami Marlins: 77.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
- Washington Nationals: 70.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
New York Mets Win Total Prediction
The Mets have their best roster in years with a loaded rotation that features two of the most dominant pitchers of this generation in deGrom and Scherzer. However, the Mets finally have a dependable lineup around the star studding pitching after bringing in the likes of Starling Marte and Eduardo Escobar to compliment Pete Alonso.
The team must stay healthy, but there is no denying that they have the talent to outlast this tough NL East crowd. It's not a given that any of these teams will get to 90 wins given the depth of the group, but if there's one, the Mets have by far the most upside with their rotation.
Atlanta Braves Win Total Prediction
The Braves won 88 games last season ahead of their World Series run after a slow start to the season, so should we expect that they ride this wave into next season and play better?
I lean towards no. 90 wins a high bar to clear and the Braves will be switching Freeman out for Olson while also starting the season without Acuna, who is still nursing a torn ACL.
The NL East is better this season than last with the Mets and Phillies making significant improvements to compete with the Braves and I believe they are in line to hang around the mid 80's. Coming off a World Series run, I can see a slow start once again for Atlanta in a tough division.
Philadelphia Phillies Win Total Prediction
The Phillies signed Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber as their headline moves this (abridged) offseason, but is that enough. Philadelphia now has a loaded middle of the lineup with those two flanking Harper, but what about the defense?
Both Castellanos and Schwarber are minus defenders and the Phils lack depth in the rotation behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. The team has always hade bullpen issues and I wonder if they are going to hold onto leads with poor defense and a vulnerable bullpen.
This team is going to be a lot of fun to watch, but I see them having low floor and would rather play them in bigger markets like division odds or pennant odds than just on their win total as you have to lay -110 on a simple outcome.
Miami Marlins Win Total Prediction
The Marlins sputtered last season, winning just 67 games, but this is a young team with a budding pitching staff that can battle with the top of the NL East.
Predicting an 11 win jump is steep, as this team has taken money to the over all offseason, but I think if there's an upside play here it's the Fish. Sandy Alcantara and Trevor Rogers headline the rotation and an electric infielder in Jazz Chisholm, but the team also brought in some reliable hitting by way of Jorge Soler. He hit 27 home runs with the Royals and Braves last season, helping spark Atlanta's World Series run.
The Marlins are a tough out and can play a role in the division race, even if it is just as a spoiler down the stretch.
Washington Nationals Prediction Win Total Prediction
Juan Soto is as good as they come, but...that's it.
The Nationals are in the midst of a long rebuild and there's usually one team that bottoms out in each division. Washington is short on pitching and is going to find themselves struggling to hold off other teams late in games.
When looking at the composition of the NL East, the Mets and Phillies are two teams that stick out as two teams that can erase late deficits against a porous Nats bullpen.
Ultimately, I see no value in playing Washington in any Futures market, but I do think this team struggles to crack 70 wins. I heavily lean towards the under.
Predicting the NL East Division Winner
I'll go with the Mets loaded roster outlasting the Braves after a World Series run and the Phillies flawed group of players.
New York needs to remain healthy, which is always a question, but there is no denying that this is one of the most well rounded ball clubs in all of baseball.
Looking for more previews ahead of Opening Day? Check out the BetSided team’s AL East andNL West previews here!