2022 NBA Mock Draft Based On Odds (Predicting the Lottery for Every Team)
By Peter Dewey
The 2022 NBA Draft is just eight days away, and the contenders for the No. 1 overall pick have been solidified in the betting market, with Jabari Smith as the favorite over Chet Holmgren.
The NBA draft will always have a few wrinkles in it, especially with rumors that the Sacramento Kings (No. 4) and the Portland Trail Blazers (No. 7) are willing to trade their selections to grab win-now players.
It’s possible that another lottery team jumps up the board to snag a prospect it really likes, but as we saw in 2020 with Tyrese Haliburton, a consensus top pick could fall on the board for medicals or other reasons.
Here at BetSided, we’ve broken down the full 2022 NBA Draft order and top prospects for Thursday, June 23. However, we haven’t dipped our toes in the mock draft waters… until now.
Using the odds for the No. 1 selection at WynnBET Sportsbook, here is our mock draft of the lottery (first 14 picks) of the 2022 NBA Draft.
1. Orlando Magic: Jabari Smith (-170)
Jabari Smith is the full package as a scorer, and he fits well alongside youngsters Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. in Orlando's frontcourt.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder: Chet Holmgren (+140)
Chet Holmgren was the consensus No. 1 in this class heading into the 2021-22 season, so this is a solid value for a OKC team that jumped up the board. The Thunder need talent in any way they can get it.
3. Houston Rockets: Paolo Banchero (+1500)
Paolo Banchero is the only other player that may be considered at No. 1, but the betting markets indicate he is going to fall to No. 3. With Christian Wood entering the end of his deal, Houston has a perfect replacement in Banchero and could trade Wood for more assets.
4. Sacramento Kings: Jaden Ivey (+10000)
I doubt the Kings actually make a pick here based on their desire to "win now," but someone will take Ivey, the best guard in this class, with this pick.
5. Detroit Pistons: Shaedon Sharpe (+10000)
Shaedon Sharpe in the biggest mystery in this draft. I've seen the Pistons love Ivey and hope he falls to five, but they may have to move up (possible Jerami Grant trade?) to grab him. Sharpe has a ton of upside, but there isn't much film on him. He and Cade Cunningham could be the huge swing Detroit needs.
6. Indiana Pacers: Keegan Murray (+20000)
A perfect Domantas Sabonis replacement? Murray is a solid scorer that can stretch the floor, and the Pacers have things in hand at the guard spots with Malcolm Brogdon, Haliburton and Buddy Hield. If they move Brogdon, Dyson Daniels or Benedict Mathurin could be in play.
7. Portland Trail Blazers: Dyson Daniels (+50000)
Dyson Daniels is soaring up board as a high-upside pick. While I'm not sure Portland makes this selection with its desire to make a deal, Daniels appears to be the top of the "second tier" in this class.
8. New Orleans Pelicans (via LAL): Benedict Mathurin (+25000)
The Pelicans could certainly use another ball handler after losing Lonzo Ball last offseason, and Mathurin is a dynamic combo guard that could take some pressure off C.J. McCollum.
9. San Antonio Spurs: Johnny Davis (+50000)
Johnny Davis can do it all, and the sophomore feels like a perfect fit in San Antonio. The Spurs could form a really tough backcourt with bigger guards like Davis and Dejounte Murray. After trading Derrick White at the deadline, I like this fit for San Antonio.
10. Washington Wizards: AJ Griffin (+25000)
The Wizards need to bring in some players that can help Bradley Beal (if he stays) right away. Griffin is a solid wing scorer that could become a plus defender with his size.
11. New York Knicks: Malaki Branham (N/A)
The Knicks-Branham union has been gaining steam, although it's possible New York tries to move up in the draft by trading a veteran like Evan Fournier or Alec Burks.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LAC): Ochai Agbaji (+50000)
The Thunder nab Holmgren at No. 2, and then grab one of the better scorers in the draft to help with their thin wing depth.
13. Charlotte Hornets: Mark Williams (N/A)
Mark Williams isn't listed on the odds to go No. 1, but he's a perfect fit for a Charlotte team that needs an athletic center that can defend and dominate the glass.
14. Cleveland Cavaliers: Jeremy Sochan (N/A)
I could see Cleveland moving out of this spot if Branham or another guard isn't available, but Sochan is an elite defender that would fit well in J.B. Bickerstaff's scheme.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.