2022 NFL Preseason Betting Trends (It's Time to Fade the UNDER Trend)

The 2022 NFL preseason is here, and you're fooling yourself if you think you're not going to bet on it.

But since we're going to bet on it, let's at least make some smart wagers.

I already broke done for you three key strategies for betting on the NFL preseason, which you can read here, but in this article, I'm going to break down some trends that you should keep in mind moving forward.

NFL Preseason Betting Trends

Underdogs Thrive in Preseason

Dating back to 1995, underdogs in the NFL postseason have hit at a rate of 53.7% against the spread.

Keep in mind that this trend reversed in the 2021 preseason, when favorites covered at a 53.3% clip. Even with that being the case, underdogs have been the play over the long term.

Don't Factor in Home Field Advantage

Home field advantage might be present in normal situations, but it hasn't exactly been the case when it comes to the NFL preseason.

Home teams last year won only 39.1% of the games, and covered the spread in only 31.1% of them. Home favorites, also struggled, covering at a rate of 34.1% of the time.

If you're going to bet on the home team simply because they'll be playing on their home field. Think again.

UNDER Trend Could be Reversing

Historically, the UNDER has been a huge moneymaker for preseason bettors. They've hit at a 58.8% clip since 2019, but some signs show that sportsbooks could be adjusting.

The average total of Week 1 preseason games is down to 33.5, which is significantly lower than we've seen in recent years. Based on that average, 57.4% of preseason games in 2019 would have gone over.

If you want to back the trend, keep betting on UNDERs, but if you want to follow some signs that sportsbooks have caught on, it could be a good time to fade the trend and bet on a few OVERs.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.