2022 SEC Football Preview, Best Bets: Can Lane Kiffin Get Ole Miss to 10 Wins Again?

The SEC is the most talented conference in college football, no question about it, but it's tough to sift through the pecking order after Alabama and Georgia.

Ole Miss won 10 games last year with an NFL level quarterback that was banged up for most of the second half of the season. Can Lane Kiffin's transfer-heavy roster do it again? Or, will the year-to-year changes catch up with the Rebels in 2022?

On the other end of things, Brian Kelly is here to rebuild LSU, can he hit the ground running?

Here's my best bets for win total in the SEC in 2022:

For all of Reed's college football plays, follow his betstamp @rw33

Ole Miss OVER 7.5 Wins (-140)

As we get closer to the season, prices are going to become more expensive, but despite questions of roster turnover in 2022, I'm a buyer of Ole Miss.

Kiffin does need to replace Corral, his two leading rushers and top three receivers, but he did just that via the transfer portal.

Luke Altmyer will compete for the starting quarterback job with USC gun slinging quarterback Jaxson Dart, who saw some time as a freshman for the Trojans, showcasing serious arm talent. Either player will be handing the ball off to a pair of stud running backs in Ulysses Bently (SMU) and Zach Evans (TCU).

At receiver, Kiffin nabbed Jaylon Robinson (UCF), Jordan Watkins (Louisville) and Michael Trigg (USC). As well, the team will get injured Jonathan Mingo back after he played only six games at wide out in 2021.

The offense will look different but it is incredibly talented and brings back more than 70% of their starts on the offensive line, per The Athletic.

Kiffin loves to play with tempo and this offense is equipped to be elite once again, but can the defense hold up their end of the bargain?

The team has an emerging star in Cedric Johnson, who racked up 6.5 sacks in 2021, and Kiffin brought in, you guessed it, more transfers from Power 5 schools such as Auburn and Georgia Tech to fill the void up front.

The defense generated a +9 in turnover margin which could change with Dart joining as a sophomore, but the team has most of their ball hawks back like Keidron Smith and Tysheem Johnson in the secondary.

Most importantly, the schedule is incredibly advantageous for the Rebels, who will be favored in at least six of their first seven games with Kentucky serving as the only closely lined spread.

After that, the team goes to LSU and Texas A&M in back-to-back weeks before its bye. The end of the season sprint features two underdog spots at home for Alabama (in a brutal scheduling spot for the Crimson Tide) and at Arkansas. After that it's the Egg Bowl at home, a game in which they will be at least small favorites, providing a hedge spot if necessary.

A 7-0 start is in the cards despite plenty of new faces on the roster, meaning the Rebels need one coin flip to get over this number and plenty of spots to do just that. Even if Kiffin and co. need two to go there way, there are opportunities to get out of this down the stretch.

PICK: Ole Miss OVER 7.5 (-140)

LSU UNDER 6.5 Wins (+110)

A lot has been made about Kelly's transition from Notre Dame to LSU, but I'm not here to talk about accents or commitment, I'm here to bet on football teams, and LSU is a fringe bowl team at best.

Yes, the schedule has plenty of favorable spots, the Tigers are set to be considerable favorites in four games at home, but they will either be in coin flips or massive underdogs the rest of the way.

With a quarterback competition still going on between middling candidates such as Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels and incumbent starter Myles Brennan, I'm not bullish on the team winning tight games against more veteran rosters. It doesn't help that there is a ton of turnover at offensive line with the team rebuilding that whole unit against some of the best pass rushes in the country.

While there is a lot of talent on defense, such as BJ Ojulari, the team lost nearly all of their proven stars in the secondary, counting on a lot of inexperience to slow down high octane offenses in the SEC.

Kelly is likely going to build a contender at LSU, but not right away. There is too much inexperience to expect this roster to hold up over the course of the season. I project the Tigers for 6.3 wins this season and that is likely generous with their strong recruiting metrics serving as an anchor to their preseason number.

I played some under 7 wins at -135, but I'm also on + money unders as six wins and a bowl bid is more than enough to call Kelly's first season in Baton Rouge a success.

There's a chance this goes sideways quickly as the rebuilding program loses steam as the season drags on.

PICK: LSU UNDER 6.5 Wins (+110)