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2023 AAC college football preview: Odds to win conference, win totals and predictions

With some reallignment around the conference, who will emerge out of this conference?

By Reed Wallach

Jan 2, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Tulane Green Wave quarterback Michael Pratt (7) looks to throw a
Jan 2, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Tulane Green Wave quarterback Michael Pratt (7) looks to throw a / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
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The AAC is a conference in transition with several teams leaving for the Big 12 and welcoming a handful of teams from Conference USA.

However, the champions remains and enters as the favorites to repeat in Tulane. The Green Wave are off a magical season that ended with a Cotton Bowl win against USC. Now, the team enters as the hunted with the likes of SMU, Memphis and newcomers UTSA and Florida Atlantic all lurking with conference championship upside.

Below you can find the win totals for each team as well as the odds for each team to win the AAC. After that I'll give you my favorite dark horse team and the most likely champion.

AAC Win Totals

  • Charlotte: 2.5 (Over -175/Under +140)
  • East Carolina: 5.5 (Over +125/Under -150)
  • Florida Atlantic: 7.5 (Over +100/Under -125)
  • Memphis: 7.5 (Over -150/Under +125)
  • Navy: 6.5 (Over +110/Under -135)
  • North Texas: 6.5 (Over -105/Under -120)
  • Rice: 4.5 (Over -115/Under -110)
  • SMU: 8 (Over -165/Under +135)
  • South Florida: 4 (Over -130/Under +105)
  • Temple: 5 (Over -150/Under +125)
  • Tulane: 9.5 (Over +110/Under -135)
  • Tulsa: 4.5 (Over -120/Under -105)
  • UAB: 5 (Over -120/Under -105)
  • UTSA: 7.5 (Over -140/Under +115)

AAC Conference Winners

AAC Dark Horse: Florida Atlantic (+900)

The team is transitioning from Conference USA to the AAC, but I believe the Owls have the talent to hit the ground running this year. The team hired Tom Herman this offseason, who has been a quick starter at new jobs. Herman improved Houston by five games in his first season there and two games at Texas. FAU won five games last year, can the team take a jump?

The team has options at quarterback with Central Michigan transfer Daniel Richardson and Penn State transfer Michael Johnson, but Herman reunited with former Texas QB Casey Thompson, who has the talent to be a top three QB in the conference.

Whoever starts at quarterback, the team has an elite running back next to him in Larry McCammon III, who rushed for over 1,000 yards last year. The team also brings back three starters on the for a group that was top 30 in offensive line yards and top 20 in sacks allowed. At wide receiver, the quarterback has the No. 1 target from last seasons team in LaJontay Wester back.

The offense was fine last year, and should be better this year, but the defense was terrible last year. However, with Herman taking over, and 18 of 19 defenders that played 250-plus snaps back, I believe the team can take a tangible step forward.

If the defense can take a slight step forward, the offense has the ceiling to be one of the best in the conference.

Further, the schedule sets up nicely for the Owls, who play all of its elite AAC foes in Boca Raton, hosting UTSA and Tulane this season. I believe there's a ton of upside for Herman and co..

AAC Championship Pick: SMU (+380)

The Mustangs transition at quarterback from Tanner Mordecai (now at Wisconsin) but may have an even better player stepping in in sophomore Preston Stone.

Stone will not have the No. 1 receiver from last season in Rashee Rice, but the team has the other four top receivers in addition to Miami transfer Jaylan Knighton. The offense has been elite for several years and the expectation is that it will be again after the team averaged over 38 points per game.

The team plays fast, top 15 in players per minute and averaged over 13 points per game, but the team must take a step forward on defense after allowing more than six yards per play and nearly three points per drive. In losses, SMU allowed at least 28 points in all in the regular season for an average of over 41 points per game.

The defense does bring in a host of transfers from Liberty, who were an elite defense against a stout schedule last season, namely linebacker Ahmad Walker and corner Chris Megginson. Further, the team has more transfer help with the likes of Temple's Kobe Wilson in at LB.

The defense needs to earn my trust, but it's hard not to be floored about the upside of this team with Stone taking over in addition to the schedule. SMU will be favored in every conference game but one (at Memphis). If the defense can go from one of the 20 worst in the country to inside the top 90, the team could be undefeated going into that Memphis matchup.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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