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2023 Big Ten Win Totals: Penn State set for big season, can Illinois find similar success as last season?

Penn State has the pieces in place for a Big Ten Championship run while Illinois tries to follow up one of its best seasons in a decade

By Reed Wallach

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar (15) prepares to throw the ball during the Blue-White game at
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar (15) prepares to throw the ball during the Blue-White game at / Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK
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The Big Ten is going through some transitions with the likes of USC and UCLA set to join next season and Ohio State moving on from C.J. Stroud.

At the top of the conference, its as crowded as ever with Michigan and Ohio State jockeying at the top but Penn State lurking as a talented third choice. Over in the West division, Illinois tries to contend once again after winning eight games for the first time since 2007.

However, the Fighting Illini lose a ton of key contributors, especially on a top 10 defense including No, 5 pick Devon Witherspoon and defensive coordinator Ryan Walters. How will that impact the team's 2023 win total? Let's dig into it:

Penn State OVER 9.5 Wins (-135)

Penn State has College Football Playoff upside in 2023, but the team is being priced far below the likes of Michigan and Ohio State in the futures market. However, I believe that the team's very good the past few years ceiling is weighing down its upside in the betting market.

The team moves on from veteran Sean Clifford to five star recruit Drew Allar, who is flanked by arguably the best running back group in the country in Nicolas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. While the team lacks experience, the team brings back five offensive linemen who started five games last year, including first round prospect Olumuyiwa Fashanu.

The offense has a far more upside than last year and the defense brings back 75% of its production from a team that was top 10 in yards per play allowed, points per drive allowed, tackles for loss and turnovers gained. Sure, the team loses Joey Porter Jr to the NFL, but the team has future pro Kalen King back who defended 16 passes last season.

The schedule does feature at Ohio State and Michigan, but the Nittany Lions are more than capable of winning at least one of those games. If the team loses both of those games, Penn State should be favored by at least a score in every other game with the toughest games coming at Illinois in September and Iowa the following week at home, cashing an over ticket.

Illinois UNDER 6.5 Wins (+100)

Illinois smashed expectations in 2023, winning eight games with a win total below five behind one of the best defenses in the entire country. However, this is not the same team, and I believe that the market has swung too far on the Illini.

While the defensive line should remain elite with Jer'Zhan Newton(14 TFLs) and Keith Randolph Jr. back, but its the secondary that gives me pause, woh return only one starter and must replace one of the best corners in the country Witherspoon who went No. 5 in the NFL Draft. It's not just Witherspoon, but also day two picks in safeties Jatavius Murray and Sydney Brown.

Speaking of Brown, his brother was the entire offense last year at running back. Chase was a 1,600 yard rusher that offset a poor passing game. However, he is gone too and head coach Bert Bielema hit the portal to nab Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer and Ball State transfer John Paddock.

So, this is going to be a vastly different roster that won't be supported by one of the best defenses in the country heading into the year, but the win total is being anchored by the eight win season in Champaign.

While the team should go at least 2-1 in non conference, the team faces two elite G5 groups in Toledo and Florida Atlantic both at home with a matchup at Kansas at well. While the tougher opponents come at home in Penn State and Wisconsin, the team has tricky road trips at Purdue, Maryland, Minnesota and Iowa.

To me, the team is clearly favored in five games (Toledo, Florida Atlantic, Nebraska, Indiana, Northwestern), but finding two more wins is tricky with the questions around the roster. The team opens with eight straight games, and if the team loses to Penn State and Wisconsin at home, the team must split the four Big Ten road games to guarantee an over.

At a cheap price, I'll go under on Illinois this season as the team takes a slight step back.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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