2023 College Football Betting Preview: Will Colorado State Improve in 2023?

Jay Norvell bolted from Nevada to Colorado State last season, but the team stumbled early and often, finishing 3-9 on the year.

However, many are flocking to the Rams in 2023 and expecting a big jump behind returning quarterback Clay Millen and star receiver Tory Horton. Will Colorado State improve in 2023 and flirt with bowl eligbility?

While Colorado State floundered in 2022, Air Force won 10 games yet again, the third time in four years, a fixture in the Mountain West title picture. The Falcons have a win total of 8.5 in 2023, is that too high or too low?

Here are two win totals I'm playing in the Mountain West this season.

Colorado State UNDER 4.5 Wins (+134)

There is optimism around the Rams, who bring back its quarterback in Millen and most dangerous weapon in Horton, who hauled in 71 catches for 1,131 yards and eight touchdowns despite the offense averaging less than five yards per play (116th in the country) and about one point per drive (128th).

I'm not seeing it this year for the Rams, who replace one of the worst offensive lines in the sport with a host of new transfers from the Division 2 ranks. When Millen wasn't finding Horton for chunk passes, he was being sacked at a national high rate. The team was outside the top 100 in EPA/Play and was 125th in success rate and I don't believe any of the transfer imports are going to change the script.

The bullish case is that Norvell's offensive scheme that produced successful Nevada rosters takes time to gel, but this is still a year too early for the Rams, who lack the depth to hold up against a formidable conference of defenses.

Speaking of defenses, the Rams had 24 sacks last year and allowed 24 rushing touchdowns. The team got pushed around on the line of scrimmage and didn't generate any turnovers (89th in turnovers gained).

Norvell is still trying to find the right mix of players on his roster moving forward, and the schedule does him no favors. After a Week 2 bye, the Rams finish playing 11 straight games, the only team in the country playing that many games in a row.

The team will be favored in three games against Utah Tech, Nevada and at Hawai'i, but the latter two come in the final two weeks of the season when the team may be running out reserves due to built up injuries over the grueling schedule.

I'm fading Colorado State in year two under Norvell, who still doesn't have his roster in place.

Air Force OVER 8.5 Wins (-110)

Air Force's win total price as well as the conference future numbers is being held down due to two key pieces of information (or lack thereof): The team hasn't named its starting quarterback between three players and the team needs to replace Brad Roberts, who accounted for 1,728 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns on 345 carries.

There's rightfully questions about how the Air Force offense will look in 2023 despite getting three starting offensive linemen back for the always tough-to-contain triple option, but the defense gives the team a rock solid floor and the schedule makes me confident that of the tops three teams in the conference, the Falcons have the fewest questions.

Air Force has trotted out a top 20 defense on average over the last four seasons and returns 70% of production on that side of the ball, including nine of 13 defenders that played 250-plus snaps.

With a non conference that features Robert Morris, Sam Houston State (on a neutral field), at Navy and Army (neutral), Air Force will be lightly tested.

In Mountain West play, the team's toughest test comes in the final game of the season at Boise State. Besides that, toughest opponents come at home with San Diego State and Wyoming coming to Colorado Springs.

All in all, the Falcons are going to be favored or a one-score underdog in possibly every game this season with the exception being Boise State in the season finale on the road. There are plenty of ways to navigate the schedule as a bettor and find ways to profit on this Falcons win total of 8.5.

With a stout defense, I believe it will give the team an opportunity to figure out its offense early in the year and improve as the season goes on. Further, the team leaves the friendly confines of Colorado Spring once before Week 8 (at San Jose State in Week 4).

In head coach Troy Calhoun's 16 years with the program, the Falcons are averaging nearly eight wins per season and has won 10 games in three of the last four years, I believe we see a similar number in 2023.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.