2023 Heisman Trophy Bets: Back Clemson's Cade Klubnik with Garrett Riley as offensive coordinator

Everybody is looking up at the reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, who is the favorite to go back-to-back for the first time since 1974 and 1975.

However, I'm here to tell you that there is more value down the board and I have landed on Cade Klubnik as my Heisman Trophy bet. The Clemson quarterback is equipped with a high pedigree as a former five star recruit, a ton of returning production around him and high level offensive coordinator Garrett Riley calling the plays.

Let me make the case for Klubnik as a Heisman Trophy bet ahead of the season, but first let me set the table with the odds.

2023 Heisman Trophy odds

In order to win the Heisman Trophy, there's a blend of factors that need to go in that player's favor in order to win.

• The quarterback must put up high level stats, the last five winners have all passed for north of 4,300 yards and had at least 42 passing touchdowns. While being a dual-threat QB helps the eye test, it's not required.

• The player must start on a very successful team. If you don't win at least nine games, you aren't winning the Heisman Trophy unless you put up video game-like numbers. The last time a player won the Heisman that didn't win nine games was 1987 when Tim Brown won it for Notre Dame.

• The more games the team wins, the better. I'd go above nine and say the team typically needs to win at least double digit games to be in the conversation.

• The player must win a handful of marquee games along the way.

• This sounds subjective, but the high leverage games helps shape the narrative around a player, think about the "Heisman Moment."

So, we are looking for a player that is in an offensive friendly scheme, will win a lot of games and beat some good teams along the way.

Let me tell you why Klubnik makes all the sense this season.

Why You Should Bet Cade Klubnik to Win the Heisman Trophy

Clemson offensive scheme around Garrett Riley's play calling

Dabo Swinney struck out promoting Brandon Streeter to his first offensive coordinator position in 2022 and it showed. Swinney remedied the issue by bringing in TCU OC Garrett Riley, brother of USC head coach Lincoln to revitalize the unit in 2023.

It was just last year that Riley created one of the best offenses in the country with Max Duggan earning Heisman Trophy finalist consideration. The Horned Frogs bolstered an explosive offense that rated 10th in yards per play, averaged over 40 points per game and was eighth in yards per pass attempt.

Oh, and Duggan wasn't even the Week 1 starter. Riley created such a potent offense with a scheme that is so quarterback friendly he plugged in Duggan in place of starter Chandler Morris in the opener and didn't miss a beat.

Now, he gets a five star recruit in Klubnik who got some experience last season and should hit the ground running.

Furhter, he will play behind four returning starting offensive linemen and will throw to veterans Beaux Collins, Antonio Williams and highly touted up and comer Noble Johnson. Veteran running back Will Shipley will flank Klubnik at running back as well.

While Clemson's offense appears to slow down last season around poor play calling and execution, the team still graded out as a top 30 unit in success rate, especially behind a strong run game. With a better passer under center and a simplified scheme, there's a ton of upside.

Clemson is going to be favored in every single game as part of a marquee schedule

Will Clemson go undefeated? It's far from a given, but the runway is there as the team will be favored in every single game this season.

The Tigers toughest game comes at home in Week 4 against Florida State, a measuring stick game between the two top contenders in the ACC. While the game is far from a sure Clemson win, it provides a launching pad for Klubnik's Heisman Trophy campaign.

As noted above, winning key games and getting your name on the headlines is part of the process, and Klubnik will likely shine in a win against the high powered offense of the Seminoles, who have a Heisman Trophy candidate in its own right in Jordan Travis. The winner not only gets the inside track in the ACC, but the Heisman conversation.

Further, the team gets road trips to Miami, home games against Notre Dame and North Carolina, and a season finale rivalry game against South Carolina, one of the worst defenses in the SEC.

There's plenty of opportunity for Klubnik to insert his name in the Heisman Trophy conversation.

If Riley unlocks the offense for a team that won 10 games last season in what was a "down year," this team is primed for an undefeated regular season, which will all but certainly send Klubnik to New York as a finalist.

Hell, he may just win.

Before the season starts, I'm buying the upside on Clemson by backing its quarterback to be the first ever Tigers player to hoist the Heisman Trophy.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.