2023 MLB Home Run Derby prediction and odds (Take the Easier Path)

Target the half of the HR Derby bracket with four newcomers

If you’re not betting on the Home Run Derby tonight, you’re missing out on great betting value and a TON of fun.

The best All-Star event in any of the major sports begins at 8 p.m. tonight at T-Mobile Park featuring eight of the top sluggers in baseball.

Let’s dig into the odds and see who gives us the best chance of hitting it big tonight. 

2023 MLB Home Run Derby Odds 

2023 MLB Home Run Derby Prediction

The switch to a bracket format a few years ago has made the Home Run Derby more fun AND easier to predict. 

Of course, there are several factors that go into picking a Home Run Derby winner, but let’s start with the park.

T-Mobile Park doesn’t strongly favor either directional hitter. There are almost insignificant differences to the distances to the left-field and right-field walls – with the left-field wall three feet closer than the right and the right-field foul pole five feet closer than the left.

Now let’s examine the odds. 

Though he is a two-time winner in just three tries, Pete Alonso’s odds of +300 are simply too short to hold much value – especially when you consider the odds attached to his competitors and how difficult his side of the bracket is.

While we’re at it, let’s toss aside Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and his +370 odds, too, for the same reasons. 

Now we’ll pivot to look at how the bracket breaks down and pick the likeliest path to the final. 

I’m avoiding the bottom-half of the bracket because the competition is just too tight on that side. If you escape Round 1 with your pick, you’d have to face one of: Pete Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Mookie Betts or Julio Rodriguez in Round 2. 

The other side of the bracket, however, has FOUR hitters who are all brand-new to the Home Run Derby. 

You could come up with just about any reason to bet on any of these four players, from Luis Robert Jr. being the No. 1 seed to Adley Rutchsman’s ridiculous +1800 odds to win. 

I’m picking Adolis Garcia here. 

Is Garcia the best power hitter in this event? No. Is he one of the best with the easiest perceivable path? Yes. 

Garcia is a premiere power hitter in just about every stat. He ranks: 4th in MLB in barrels, 15th in balls hit over 95 mph, 16th in average distance and 28th in average exit velocity. 

Few players in the tournament have stats like those – especially on the side of the bracket. 

I’ll take Garcia at +700 odds and hope that he can sustain enough energy to win the final round. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.