2023 NFL MVP odds (Patrick Mahomes favored to repeat, eight players shorter than 20/1)

The latest NFL MVP odds for the 2023 season. Patrick Mahomes is favored to repeat.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

It’s officially August, and it’s time to start diving into the futures market in the NFL – starting with the odds to win the MVP award.

Patrick Mahomes is the league’s reigning MVP, and the award has become almost exclusively a quarterback honor, as the last 10 winners have been quarterbacks and only four players (all running backs) that didn’t play the position have won the award since 2000. 

Mahomes is favored to repeat at +700 odds, but he’s not the only player with shorter than +1000 odds to win the award. Joe Burrow (+750) and Josh Allen (+800) are both up there with Mahomes. However, it’s worth noting Burrow suffered a calf injury in training camp that has put some uncertainty around his status in the lead-up to the 2023 season. 

Betting on the MVP award has several factors. 

First off, the player almost always has to be on one of the better teams in the NFL. Mahomes and the Chiefs were the best team in the AFC last season, and the runner up was Jalen Hurts, who led the Philadelphia Eagles to the best record in the NFL. 

The second key is to remember that these awards are voted for by humans and that voter fatigue is real. In the NBA, it just happened with the league’s MVP award going to Joel Embiid instead of Nikola Jokic for the third straight season. 

Could that put a dent in Mahomes’ case? It’s possible. 

Lastly, the numbers have to be there as well. The players who have the best stats are the ones that will be considered for this award first, so it’s important to look at quarterbacks in favorable offenses and situations. 

So, who do oddsmakers see taking home the honor in 2023? Let’s dive into the latest odds: 

2023 NFL MVP odds

Looking at the initial MVP odds, there are a few players that stick out to me. 

Jalen Hurts (+1100)

Hurts (+1100) is down in fourth in the odds despite his terrific 2022 season. While some people may expect the Philadelphia Eagles to take a step back, the NFC is even weaker this season, setting up perfectly for Hurts to lead Philly to the No. 1 seed again. 

Dak Prescott (+2500)

For the same reason I listed Hurts, Prescott is in the conversation because of the weaker NFC. Should Dallas overtake Philly in the division, Prescott is going to need to have a solid season. Not only that, but the “America’s Team” narrative lines up for him beautifully. 

Lamar Jackson (+1500)

Outside of Mahomes, there may not be a player more important to his team than Jackson. 

The dual-threat quarterback is going to need to stay healthy, but the additions of Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. should give Lamar by far the best weapons he’s had in the NFL. 

2023 NFL MVP best bet

Joe Burrow (+750)

I’m not going to let Joe Burrow’s calf injury scare me away from what I think will be his first league MVP. 

Burrow has the narrative on his side in 2023 after leading the Cincinnati Bengals to back-to-back AFC title games and one Super Bowl appearance, and he has an elite group of weapons with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and others to put up the numbers necessary to win MVP. 

Last season, Burrow threw four picks in Week 1, but he ended the season with 35 touchdowns and just 12 picks. The Bengals finished with one of the best records in the AFC, and I expect them to be in the mix for that again in 2023. 

Sure, Mahomes, Hurts and Allen will all have similar arguments, but Burrow plays for an offense that relies heavily on him – especially if Joe Mixon struggles in 2023 like he did last season. With Cincy’s defense losing Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates in the secondary, the Bengals may need to rely on more offensive games to win in 2023. 

Over the last few seasons, Burrow has established himself among the game's best quarterbacks. This season, he officially puts himself there with an MVP. 

2023 NFL MVP dark horse pick

It’s hard to find a dark horse when nearly every quarterback has odds shorter than +8000, but we’re going to try. 

Russell Wilson (+4500)

Heading into the 2022 season, Russell Wilson was a viable MVP candidate for a Denver Broncos team that was expected to be a contender. 

He – and Nathaniel Hackett – failed miserably. 

However, with Sean Payton at the helm in 2023, there’s a chance Wilson can get back to his MVP form. The nine-time Pro Bowler’s 2022 season could have been an anomaly in a flawed offense, and he has wanted to be coached by Payton dating back to his time with the Seattle Seahawks. 

Denver has the weapons (Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams) to have an explosive offense, and if Wilson can use the team’s last-place schedule to pick up a few extra wins, maybe Denver surprises everyone and makes the playoffs – or even wins the AFC West. 

It’s a longshot, but he’s the quarterback I’d trust the most at this price point.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.