2023 NFL MVP Odds (Patrick Mahomes Favored to Win Back-to-Back, Best Bets)
By Peter Dewey
The 2023 NFL season is less than two weeks away, and there are only a few days left to place futures bets at the current odds before they inevitably shift following Week 1.
Right now, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, is favored to win his second straight MVP award, but there are several quarterbacks with shorter than 20/1 odds to win the award in 2023.
With Aaron Rodgers moving to the AFC, the conference is loaded with talent, which could lead to the team with the top spot also having the MVP winner under center. There is also a great path for Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts since he led the team to a league-best record in 2022 and a Super Bowl appearance.
Had Hurts not gotten hurt at the end of the 2022 campaign, he may have edged out Mahomes for MVP.
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Here are the odds to win the MVP award in the 2023 season:
2023 NFL MVP Odds
Why You Need to Bet on a Quarterback
If there’s one thing you need to do when betting on an MVP candidate, it’s make sure that the player is a quarterback.
Since the 2013 season, every player that has won the MVP award has played the quarterback position. Aaron Rodgers won the award even when Cooper Kupp nearly broke 2,000 receiving yards in a single season in the 2021 campaign.
The last non-QB to win MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012, and he’s one of four running backs to win the award since 2000. Every other year? The award has gone to a quarterback.
Will Patrick Mahomes Fall Victim to Voter Fatigue?
A popular discourse this offseason – and likely this season – will be whether or not voter fatigue will hurt Mahomes’ MVP case.
The Chiefs star won the award back in 2018 before winning again in 2022, but I wouldn’t let that scare you away from Mahomes if you want to bet on him.
Rodgers won back-to-back MVP awards in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, and he didn’t even make a Super Bowl appearance. Mahomes made the Super Bowl in 2020 and 2022, and he won the title last season.
I don’t think there is much debate that Mahomes is the No. 1 player in football, so if his production matches that claim, he should win a second straight MVP. Rodgers and Peyton Manning are the only players to repeat since 2000, but Rodgers, Manning and Tom Brady have won 12 of the last 22 MVP awards.
Voter fatigue may not necessarily be a thing when it comes to this award.
NFL MVP Best Bet: Trevor Lawrence Undervalued
At +1600, Trevor Lawrence may be my favorite bet to win the NFL MVP award in the 2023 season.
We’ve seen a trend of young quarterbacks (Mahomes, Lamar Jackson) winning the award and others like Hurts have been in the conversation in recent seasons.
Lawrence, who broke out in his second season in the NFL, is in an ideal position to win the MVP for a few reasons.
Easy division: First off, Lawrence plays in one of the easiest divisions in the NFL, the AFC South, giving the Jags the 12th easiest strength of schedule in 2023, per Sharp Football Analysis. Not only that, but if Jacksonville cruises to a division title, it’s likely going to have a shot at a top seed in the AFC, which could sway votes in favor of Lawrence.
Improved weapons: The Jaguars did a great job building around Lawrence with Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram, but now they welcome Calvin Ridley into their receiver room after he sat out the 2022 season because of a suspension.
With Ridley – a true No. 1 wideout – in the fold, Lawrence should be even more dangerous.
Coaching, coaching, coaching: Doug Pederson unlocked Lawrence in 2022, showing that his rookie season with Urban Meyer was more of a reflection on Meyer than anything else. This offense should be one of the best in football in 2023.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.