2023 Preakness Stakes Trifecta and Exacta Picks
The second leg of the Triple Crown horse races is here. The Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course always presents an exciting battle as one horse seeks attempts to keep the Triple Crown hope alive while others look to make their own mark on history.
This year we have Mage coming off a surprise Kentucky Derby win and is the favorite to win the Preakness as well. His top competition is National Treasure, a Bob Baffert-trained horse, and First Mission, who I made my pick to win in my initial betting preview.
In this article, we're going to discuss how I'll be betting the exacta and trifecta. If you want a long-shot pick, I wrote about that here and you can access my full betting preview at this link.
Let's start with the odds and post positions.
Preakness Stakes Odds and Post Positions
As mentioned earlier, Mage is the betting favorite out of the third post position. He came from behind to win the Derby, but will likely need a stronger start to win the Preakness.
Post Position | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
1 | National Treasure | 4/1 |
2 | Chase the Chaos | 50/1 |
3 | Mage | 8/5 |
4 | CoffeeWithChris | 20/1 |
5 | Red Route One | 10/1 |
6 | Perform | 15/1 |
7 | Blazing Sevens | 6/1 |
8 | First Mission | 5/2 |
Preakness Exacta Picks
For those who don't know, an exacta pick is when you correctly pick the horses to finish first and second in the race in their exact order. It's kind of like a two-leg parlay in traditional sports betting, for those dabling in horse betting for the first time.
The first thing I'll mention for this race is long shots rarely win. This race has been run 147 times, and only four horses have won the race with odds of 15-1 or greater in that time. It's not sexy, and it won't lead to a huge payout, but I'll follow the numbers and predict one of the favorites to win.
That's why I'm backing First Mission. He's the third betting favorite, but more importantly to this race, has the second fastest speed rating among the horses; Mage ran faster at the Derby.
The Preakness is 1 3/16 miles long, meaning speed is big here. Mage has never ran races two weeks apart and I don't think his speed from the Derby is sustainable in this situation.
Which brings us back to First Mission. While he's on the outside, he's only got seven horses inside him, making the distance he has to close considerably less than if he was on the outside of a 20-horse race like the Derby.
First Mission won the Grade-3 Lexington Stakes in April and has had five weeks off since then. I think that extra rest will play a role down the stretch and lead to a strong finish for the fastest horse (outside Mage) in this race.
Of course, we need a second pick, and I like National Treasure here. Running from the inside with blinders on, I (and many others) expect National Treasure to get off to a fast start. I just don't think he'll sustain it to the end.
Other horses I may mix in include Blazing Sevens, Mage and Perform.
Preakness Trifecta Picks
Basically, I'll be taking the horses mentioned about and rotating them for my trifecta based on odds.
Blazing Sevens has the experience and pedigree to win this race so I'll likely throw him on as a winner for one of my tickets with First Mission second and Mage third. But I also may go First Mission First, Blazing Sevens second and Mage third.
I don't think Mage will finish outside the top 3.
This is all to say, the key to trifecta picks is to have one or two winners and then mixing up the second and third spots.
It should be an awesome race, now let's try and make some money!
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.