2024 British Open: Top 25 Countdown to the Winner at Royal Troon
By Todd Moser
Last week: Bob MacIntyre gave us our pick of the year as the hometown hero won The Scottish Open giving us our 11th outright win of the season.
This week’s field at Troon is another truly international field with all the favorites and multiple contenders from across the world. The picks this week are a bit handicapped as the model relies on course track record. With very few players having no experience at Troon, we will rely a lot on the current form. Had MacIntyre not won last week, he would have been my pick this week. Will I back another surprise winner? Find out below.
The Open Championship at Troon Power Rankings: Top 25 Countdown to the Winner
25-21. Best of the Rest
25. Justin Thomas (USA) +6600
JT has shown signs of life in his last two tournaments with a T-8 at The Travelers and an opening round 62 at The Scottish Open. Prior to a missed cut at The US Open and a T-33 at the Memorial, he finished T-8 at the PGA, T-21 at The Wells Fargo, and T-5 at The Heritage. The big question for JT is, can he put four rounds together?
24. Davis Thompson (USA) +10000
Thompson has quietly snuck up to 40th in the World Golf Rankings. He has a win and two seconds in the last eight weeks, and he finished off last week’s Scottish Open with a 65.
23. Ashkay Bhatia (USA) +10000
Bhatia is another rising star and is now ranked 26th in the world. He didn’t play the Scottish last week which I’m not fond of, but he has not finished worse than T-22 in his last four starts including a T-2 and a T-5 in his last two starts.
22. Matt Fitzpatrick (England) +6600
Fitzpatrick is not on great form coming into The Open. Last week, he finished a disappointing T-39. His last good finish was back in May at The Memorial where he finished T-5. But it’s hard to keep this crowd favorite out of the mix this week. He has a T-20 at The Open in 2019 and a T-21 in 2022.
21. Shane Lowry (N Ireland) +4000
You can never count out the big Irishman in this event. It’s the 2019 winner’s favorite event. Lowry did not play last week, again, something I’m not fond of; however, he has a solid majors record this year with a T-19 in The US Open, a T-6 at The PGA, and a T-43 at The Masters. In his last event, he finished T-9 at The Travelers.
20-11 The Serious Contenders
20. Min Woo Lee (Australia) +6600
Lee finished a disappointing 73rd at last week’s Scottish Open. That gives me pause for this week, and I think his odds reflect that. Prior to last week, he had finished in the Top 26 for six consecutive tournaments. In addition, he has a good record in the majors this year finishing T-22 at The Masters, T-26 at The PGA, and T-21 at The US Open.
19. Sungjae Im (S Korea) +5500
Mr. Consistency has six Top 10s this year and has finished T-12 or better in seven out of his last nine events. Last week, he contended at The Scottish Open before finishing T-4. He finished T-20 at last year’s Open Championship/
18. Corey Connors (Canada) +6600
Connors often hangs around the leaderboard at major tournaments. This year, he has a T-38 at The Masters, a T-26 at The PGA, and a T-9 at the US Open. In his last eight events, his worst finish is T-27 including Top 10s in three of his last five. Last week, he finished T-10 at The Scottish Open. His best finish at The Open was a T-15 in 2021.
17. Alex Noren (Sweden) +8000
Noren quietly has a good record at The Open. He finished T-23 last year, T-11 in 2020, T-17 in 2019, and T-6 in 2017. He also has course experience finishing T-46 the last time the event was held at Troon. He played well last week finishing T-10. He didn’t qualify for The Masters but finished T-19 at The Players and T-12 at The PGA.
16. Adam Scott (Australia) +6600
Rai was one of the last three players to qualify for this week and did so with a T-4 at The Scottish Open. He’s finished in the Top 25 in seven of his last nine events including Top 10s in his last three. His best finish at The Open was a T-19 in 2021. Rai’s issue this year has been finishing off tournaments. I see him on the leaderboard heading into Sunday.
15. Aaron Rai (England) +5500
Rai was one of the last three players to qualify for this week and did so with a T-4 at The Scottish Open. He’s finished in the Top 25 in seven of his last nine events including Top 10s in his last three. His best finish at The Open was a T-19 in 2021. Rai’s issue this year has been finishing off tournaments. I see him on the leaderboard heading into Sunday.
14. Sahith Theegala (USA) +5000
Theegala is now the 11th-ranked player in the world. Last week, he had a chance to win The Scottish before finishing T-4. His best finish at The Open is a T-34 in 2022. He’s played well in big events including a T-9 at The Players and a T-12 at The PGA. Like Rai, he will likely be on the leaderboard after Saturday.
13. Bob MacIntyre (Scotland) +3300
As mentioned at the top, Bobby Mac would have been my pick if not for his emotional win in his home Open last week. I’m not sure how quickly one can recover from a lifelong dream. Honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me if he missed the cut, but if he has any gas left in the tank he will contend. He has two Top 10 finishes at The Open including a T-8 in 2021 and a T-6 in 2019.
12. Tom Kim (S Korea) +4000
The 17th-ranked player in the world is coming off a final round 64 and T-15 at last week’s Scottish Open. He recently lost a playoff to Scottie Scheffler at The Travelers, so he comes into this week in good form. His record in this year’s majors is a T-30 at The Masters, a T-26 at The PGA, and a T-26 at The US Open. Last year, he finished T-2 at The Open. Can he do one better this year?
11. Patrick Cantlay (USA) +4500
Cantlay has had a surprisingly disappointing year. He hasn’t won but does have four Top 10s including his last two events. He finished T-3 at The US Open after contending all week and finished T-5 at The Travelers. His best Open finish is a T-8 in 2022. His putting and scrambling have been great this year, and he’s needed that because his ballstriking stats off the tee and approach have been ranked in the 100s. I think the potential wind and rain could be a neutralizer for him this week vs. the field.
The Top 10
These are the guys I’ll be playing this week. I feel each has a legit chance at The Claret Jug.
10. Tony Finau (USA) +4500
Finau is flying a bit under the radar this week; a situation I always like. What bothers me is that he hasn’t played since The Travelers almost a month ago. The good news is that he hasn’t finished outside the Top 20 in his last five events and has had three straight Top 10s including a T-3 at The US Open. His best Open finish was in 2019 when he finished solo third.
9. Viktor Hovland (Norway) +2200
I mentioned last week that Hovland and Aberg are often compared to each other, and both seem on the brink of a big win. The problem with Hovland is that his short-game issues have cropped up once again which is especially harmful this week. His scrambling stats have dropped into the 160s, and I think it has affected the rest of his game as he still seems a bit off. Nevertheless, a player with his talents can’t be ignored. He’s played well in each of his three Open Championships with a T-13 last year, a T-4 in 2022, and a T-12 in 2021.
8. Ludvig Aberg (Sweden) +1400
Once again, Aberg was in contention for a win last week before failing in the final round. This has become a pattern as he has not broken 70 in the final round since The Masters in April. He might be leading after three rounds here. The question will be, can he handle the pressure and finish it off?
7. Bryson DeChambeau (USA) +1600
I’ve learned never to count this guy out. He came through for us at The US Open, and although the experts don’t think his game fits an Open Championship, I think he can adapt to any course. It is true that his Open record isn’t great with four of his starts finishing T-51 or worse, but he did finish T-8 in 2022. His short game conquered the difficult Pinehurst #2 at The US Open, and I think it will serve him well with similar difficulty around the green conditions at Troon.
6. Tommy Fleetwood (England) +2500
Last week, I mentioned that Fleetwood was always the bridesmaid, never the bride. He proved that again last week after being in contention, once again faded on the weekend to finish T-34. His form is good. He’s finished T-26 or better in eight of his last 10 starts. His Open record is a good one. He has four Top 12s including a T-10 last year, a T-4 in 2022, and a solo second in 2020. I fully expect him to be on the leaderboard heading into the final round.
5. Colin Morikawa (USA) +1600
There may not be a hotter player in the field than Morikawa. His worst finish in his last nine individual starts is a T-16 which includes four Top 5s in his last seven. The problem for him has been the final round where he ranks 128th in final round scoring. He won The Open in 2021. You might be looking at your winner if he shoots under par in round four.
4. Scottie Scheffler (USA) +550
I’ve ranked Scheffler pretty low relatively speaking. By all means, and to nobody’s surprise, this week’s oddsmakers favorite could win this event. He’s played The Open three times and has finished T-23, T-21, and T-8. He’s already won six times this year and is the number-one player in the world. Truthfully, the only reason I have him fourth is that he’s not played in nearly a month.
3. Xander Schauffele (USA) +1400
The X Man played well last week in Scotland finishing T-15. For him, that’s a poor finish. In fact, it’s his worst finish in his last six starts. We all expect him to be on that leaderboard late Sunday. He’s played in the last six Opens and has four Top 20s including a T-2 in 2017. Last year, he finished T-17. He no longer has the monkey on his back after winning his first major at The PGA, and as a result, I don’t see the pressure getting to him.
2. Tyrrell Hatton (England) +2200
Hatton was ALMOST my surprise pick to win. What ultimately keeps me from putting him number one is his flammable temper which was fully on display at last week’s LIV event at Valderrama; however, I think the home crowd will help him with that. He did finish well with at T-3 and has shown that if he can keep his temper in check he can contend in the big events.
He finished T-9 at The Masters and T-26 at The US Open. He also has a good track record at The Open with two Top 10s and two other Top 20s including a career-best T-5 at Troon in 2016.
1. Rory McIlroy (N Ireland) +800
When it all comes down to it, I simply think it’s finally time for Rory. I think if each player plays his best in the challenging conditions, Rory will come out ahead. His biggest opponent is himself. He comes into this week after a T-4 in Scotland. In 13 of his last 14 starts, he has finished T-24 or better. His last seven starts read like this. Win, Win, T-12, T-4, T-15, 2, and T-4. His last two Open finishes are a t-6 and a solo third. If he can mentally keep it together, I think you’re looking at the guy hoisting the Claret Jug Sunday.
The Open Championship Longshot Picks to Consider
The below players have some good pot odds so if you have a spare dollar, consider throwing it at some of these longshots:
Nicolai Hojgaard (Denmark) +10000
Sam Burns (USA) +10000
Dustin Johnson (USA) +10000
Max Homa (USA) +12500
Rasmus Hojgaard (Denmark) +15000
Matthew Pavon (France) +15000
Victor Perez (France) +20000
Romain Langasque (France) +25000
Matthew Southgate (England) +25000
Nick Taylor (Canada) +40000
Sami Valimaki (Finland) +50000
Shubhankar Sharma (India) +50000
Daniel Brown (England) +75000
Daniel Hillier (New Zealand) +75000
Ernie Els (South Africa) +100000
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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