2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Best Nationality Prop Bets

What a weekend it was at Valhalla Golf Club! The sight of the 2024 PGA Championship, where we saw Xander Schauffele earn his first major championship victory. However, Schauffele's first major championship victory wasn't the biggest story of the weekend after a tragic accident Friday morning, which eventually led to Scottie Scheffler's arrest after he allegedly disobeyed instructions from a police officer following the accident outside the golf course. 

The PGA Tour has shifted to Fort Worth, Texas, for the Charles Schwab Challenge. With Scottie Scheffler's arraignment postponed, he will be headlining this week's field along with Collin Morikawa, Jordan Speith, Max Homa, and Tony Finau, the top five betting favorites. 

But what I want to talk about here today is Nationality props. I broke down two of these last week for the PGA Championship, and it paid off thanks to a +300 for Corey Conners finishing as the top Canadian. 

This week at Charles Schwab, I'm particularly confident in the top British and Scottish markets. My analysis points to some promising contenders. Let's dive in and see who could emerge as the winner. 

• Top British Finisher: Justin Rose (+250) / Aaron Rai (+280) - Both 0.50u
• Top Scottish Finisher: Martin Laird (+137)

Top British Finishers: Justin Rose & Aaron Rai

Only one person can win this group. Still, with both of these guys priced at +250 or longer, this is an excellent opportunity to split one unit across these two golfers, hoping to return a unit in profit. 

Rai's game feels like it is built for this course. He is one of the best ball strikers in the event, ranking No.5 in the field in SG: Approach over the last three months and third in greens in regulation percentage over that same stretch. Rai also ranks No.3 in good drive percentage over the previous three months. 

This should play well at Colonial Country Club, which has exceptionally tight fairways and is a course that cannot be overpowered. Rai also ranks No.7 in Par 4 Scoring Average over the last three months, which will be huge this weekend with the 12 Par 4's around this par 70 track. 

Now for Rose. While his numbers, which I mentioned while talking about Rai, are not as good, Rose ranks No.8 among golfers in the field over the last two years in total strokes gained on less than driver courses off the tee and ranked No.4 in the field in SG: Putting on fast bentgrass greens over the last two years. 

With Rose coming off of a T6 finish at the PGA Championship and Rai finishing inside the top 40 in three straight starts, I would like one of these guys to finish as the top Englishmen this weekend. 

Top Scottish Finisher: Martin Laird

This week, the top Scottish market is a head-to-head matchup between Laird and Robert MacIntyre. While MacIntyre is the favorite, there is value in Laird as the dog. 

Much like Rose and Rai, who we just looked at, Laird is a highly consistent ball striker, ranking No.2 in the field in greens in regulation percentage and No.2 in good drive percentage over the last three months.

On top of the ball striking, which is needed around Colonial Country Club, Laird ranks No.6 in Par 4 Scoring Average over the last three months and No.10 in Par 3 Scoring Average, which will also be critical considering the four Par 3's throughout this track combine to be some of the most challenging Par 3's played on the PGA Tour.

In addition to the ball striking, Laird has been exceptional on and around the greens, recently ranking No.8 in bogey avoidance percentage and No.11 in SG: Putting over the last three months. 

Despite three top-20 finishes in his last four starts, this course doesn't fit MacIntyre's game. He ranks lower than Laird in all these key stats we just talked about and has never played at Colonial in a PGA Tour event. I like Laird's chances as the dog here, having slightly more experience on the course and a statistical advantage. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.