2024 Final Four Betting Preview: KenPom Points to UConn, Purdue Fitting Historical Parameters as Champions
Using KenPom's historical statistics to handicap the 2024 Final Four field with UConn and Purdue fitting the bill of a standard National Champion.
By Reed Wallach
It all comes down to this.
All season, I’ve been checking in weekly on the college basketball landscape as to who fits the historical parameters of a National Champion. For most of the year, the same several teams, including UConn and Purdue, have had the elite balance that is needed to win a title.
Using KenPom’s database, these were two of the many teams that have flirted with being inside the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, the same as all but two of the National Championship teams since 2002.
With only four teams left, we have limited teams to go off of, with only two of the three buckets I set applicable to the teams.
If UConn and Purdue win it all, the champ will fit the historical norms, unless the Boilermakers defense struggles mightily in the next two games needed to cut down the nets.
Let’s break down the profile of the four remaining teams, but first the odds ahead of Final Four weekend.
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2024 National Championship Odds
2024 Final Four Teams KenPom Profiles
Team | Record | Seed | KenPom Rank | KenPom AdjO | KenPom AdjD | Title Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UConn | 35-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -185 |
Purdue | 33-4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 190 |
Alabama | 25-11 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 104 | 1300 |
NC State | 26-14 | 11 | 43 | 40 | 45 | 2000 |
UConn is a wagon by all definitions. The numbers are staggering over the past two tournaments, the team has covered each game, and the eye test matches it. While Purdue is rated close on offense to the Huskies, I beg to differ. UConn's in a league of its own.
Zach Edey may be the most dominant player in the sport, but the Boilermakers lack the versatility that the Huskies have, now rated as the fourth best team in KenPom’s history.
The defense has also held up nicely, headlined by Donovan Clingan’s epic rim defense in the Elite Eight against Illinois in a battle between what was then the top two offenses in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric.
Illinois scored 14 points — total — tonight when Donovan Clingan was on the floor, per CBS Sports research.
— Matt Norlander (@MattNorlander) March 31, 2024
Purdue, on the other hand, has had some defensive issues that may stop the team from getting over the hump. The defense relies on Edey’s ability to shut off the paint, but the wing defenders are lacking against the elite competition, evident by Dalton Knecht’s 37 points in the Elite Eight.
A big issue for Purdue, and why this team is just inside the 20/20 threshold, is that the team doesn’t generate ball pressure, ranking inside the bottom 20 in turnover percentage this season.
If Purdue falls behind, especially against an elite rebounding team like UConn, the defense may not have many paths to generating extra possessions.
Of course, the current best offense may be able to offset it in a one game sample size with the nation’s best offense that is shooting above 40% from beyond the arc.
The next most likely team to win it all is Alabama, who is still outside the top 100 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. While this was a team I pegged for an early exit in the NCAA Tournament, the bracket opened up for the team to make the Sweet 16 and withstood two potent ACC offenses to make the Final Four.
I'll take the loss, but I sitll believe the team's defense will be its fatal flaw, just a later than I expected.
The Crimson Tide, despite being in the top 100 in key metrics on the defensive side of the ball like rebounding, turnover and opponent free throw rate, have offset it with elite shot making and timely play from the likes of Mark Sears and Grant Nelson.
In order to beat UConn, the team’s path forward will be the same, lean on the offense. The Huskies have the most inventive offense, but have struggled from the perimeter this tournament run, shooting just 28% from beyond the arc, a test to its dominance to date. However, if the Crimson Tide can get hot from the perimeter at its heavy rate, the team may just bounce UConn.
Lastly, NC State’s surprising run is something to behold.
NC State has won 9 straight elimination games to get to the Final Four. Using pregame win probabilities, the chances of this happening were 0.0097%, or 10314 to 1.
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) April 1, 2024
March Madness is unmatched. pic.twitter.com/SA2yBhBU6d
A true anomaly and what makes the sport so incredible and whacky.
NC State’s play hasn’t even pushed the team up the KenPom rankings all that much, still 40th or worse on both sides of the ball. However, the team has outperformed expectations in each game, including getting some timely three-point defense, and are one game away from the National Championship Game.
The Wolfpack are balanced in a way, but not at an elite level. It’s surprising that the team has made it this far, but doubting them hasn’t gotten anyone anywhere the past few weeks.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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