2024 MLB Home Run Derby Odds, Predictions, Best Bets
The 2024 MLB Home Run Derby marks the opening event of All-Star week. Eight sluggers take to the field with one simple goal in mind: hit as many home runs as possible. The venue this year is Arlington, Texas and Globe Life Field, home of the world champions, the Texas Rangers.
The rules look a bit different this year, as we have been used to the bracket format over the previous editions of this event. There is now no bracket in the first round. Instead, the eight competitors will be facing off with each other. The top four scores will advance to the semifinals, then the knockout bracket style commences. The top scorer from the opening round will gain the No. 1 seed and so on.
A new rule this year mixed in with time per round is the maximum number of pitches that can be thrown to a batter. The first round and semifinals will be either three minutes OR 40 pitches. The finals will run for two minutes OR 27 pitches.
Instead of bonus time, there are now bonus outs. Competitors will receive three bonus outs and if a home run is hit 425+ feet during their round, they will gain a fourth bonus out. It’s a new and improved look in the MLB Home Run Derby.
Ties will be broken in the first round by distance. The one who hits the longest home run of the tied competitors will advance. It changes in the semifinals and final, where any ties will be broken by a 60-second swing off. If it gets really intense with additional ties after that, there will then be a three swing “swing-off.”
Now that we’ve explained the format, here’s what I am targeting in this annual exhilarating slugfest.
MLB Home Run Derby Odds
- Pete Alonso: +300
- Gunnar Henderson: +380
- Marvell Ozuna: +400
- Bobby Witt Jr.: +470
- Adolis Garcia: +550
- Teoscar Hernandez: +1200
- Jose Ramirez: +1500
- Alec Bohm: +2200
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
MLB Home Run Derby Best Bets
- Marcell Ozuna OVER 24.5 First Round Home Runs
- Gunnar Henderson To Win Home Run Derby
- OVER 269.5 Total Home Runs Hit
Marcell Ozuna OVER 24.5 First Round Home Runs
The sluggers are here to shine and I expect a big round to open the event from Marcell Ozuna of the Atlanta Braves. He’s been one of the best sluggers in all of the MLB to this point of the season and brings elite power to the table. He’s on the top of my radar of players to win this competition, but not quite the first option.
Ozuna has 26 home runs, 77 RBI and a .303 average for the Braves this season. He’s working with a familiar face, Braves bullpen catcher Jose Yepez. He almost always throws to Ozuna in batting practice before games. Dating back to May 2023, Ozuna has really torched the baseball with 61 total home runs across 214 games.
For the setup of this year’s derby, it feels like big numbers will have to be posted. Now with the potential 40 out rule versus three minutes in the first round, each swing is just a bit more crucial to advancing to the semifinals. Ozuna is capable of getting on a hot streak and the derby is truly based around momentum. Over 24.5 home runs feels like an accurate number and I’m banking on about 28 total in this opening round from him.
Gunnar Henderson To Win Home Run Derby (+380)
Amidst these eight contenders, I am eyeing one player to stand out from the rest in the competition. I really like Gunnar Henderson to come out with the trophy in this event. The Baltimore Orioles are the best power hitting team in the league this season, and Henderson has been front and center through it all.
He’s the leading home run hitter in the field, and that’s not the sole reason why I am backing him. I believe that Henderson’s talent is special as a whole. He has an eye for the ball, and some great plate discipline. He’s tied for 12th in walks with 47 this season. He’s 3rd in home runs (28), tied for 10th in RBI (63) and tied for 7th in hits (108) league wide. The Orioles have a rich talent pool and Henderson has enveloped that star player role.
His price on the market is about where it should be (+400 on FanDuel), and he has enough extra juice that makes it worth the squeeze. Baltimore is in for some big things in the second half, and I think Henderson is going to start the party here in Texas. You gotta go big or go home in this event, like the forever cliched Texas motto.
OVER 269.5 Total Home Runs Hit
This bet is pretty self explanatory. This is the home run derby, and players are literally trying to beat the heck out of the baseball. Look, we know numbers are down across the board in the MLB. In the previous three editions of the event, the totals have sailed over at 341 last year in 2023, 291 (2022) and 309 (2021). These guys are powerful and can smack these balls out at any time.
Granted, this number is listed lower than usual likely due to the outs rule now potentially being in effect (see above). These are still very talented players in this field, especially with 2-time champion Pete Alonso being a headliner. I’m not going to be fooled here. If you’re wagering on the home run derby, why in the world are you hoping for less action?
If you crunch the numbers down, there needs to be about 20-25 home runs hit per player as a baseline average. If we get near this number, there is a real chance that the over cruises to the finish line. Even the bare minimum average of 20 homers could just be enough. We want home runs so I’m fully on this over 269.5. In an event of this nature, the trend is your friend and this is a grand slam play in my opinion.
Note: Odds are subject to change.