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2024 NBA Finals Odds Take Shape with Celtics and Mavericks Each One Win Away From Clinching Spot in Finals

By Reed Wallach

Mar 1, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) drives the ball against Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) in the second half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 1, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) drives the ball against Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) in the second half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
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The NBA Finals are all but set. 

While comebacks are possible, a 3-0 deficit in the NBA Playoffs is as improbable as any as no team has ever come back to win a series by that margin in 154 instances. Both the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks lead its conference finals 3-0, one game away from an NBA Finals appearance. 

Boston, the favorite to win the NBA Finals for much of this season, has taken care of business against the Pacers and will go for the sweep on Monday night in Game 4 from Indiana. 

Meanwhile, the Mavericks have stunned the favorite in the Western Conference Finals, the Minnesota Timberwolves with three straight wins. The Mavs are home for Game 4 on Tuesday night in hopes of finishing Minnesota in this series. 

With both series nearly all but over, the odds reflect that in the NBA title market. 

2024 NBA Championship Odds

  • Boston Celtics: -240
  • Dallas Mavericks: +200
  • Minnesota Timberwolves: +4100
  • Indiana Pacers: +75000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Celtics Projected Big Favorites vs. Mavericks in NBA Finals

While there are still odds for the Timberwolves and Pacers, its incredibly unlikely the teams are playing past this week, and the odds are now projecting a likely Finals matchup for the Celtics and Mavericks. 

Boston is -240 to win the NBA title, which would be a record 18th championship for the organization. This translates to an implied probability of 70.5%. Meanwhile, the Mavericks’ odds translate to 33.33%. 

So, the market is hinting towards about a seven percent chance of a comeback, but it's never happened before. However, the fact that both teams are up 3-0 is rare enough, this is the third time that both conference finals have a team up 3-0. 

Meanwhile, in the other two instances, last season and in 2015, neither team swept its respective series, so there’s a chance that this carries out a little bit longer, even if the result is nearly finalized. 

As we draw closer to the NBA Finals, the result is becoming more clear and we are getting a good look at projected odds for that series. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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