2024 NCAA Tournament Betting Update: Which Teams Fit KenPom's Historical Criteria as National Champions

We just watched bumper-to-bumper college basketball coverage all weekend and now get a deep breath before the second weekend picks up on Thursday night. As we do every week here at BetSided, let’s look at the National Championship picture from a historical perspective. 

Each week, I have broken down the college basketball landscape into three buckets that fit how National Champions look from an analytical perspective. Using KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metrics, which have accurately listed the National Champion for each season but two since 2002, I have used three filters to assess the field. 

The first group is the finishing group you want to qualify for, top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, highlighting elite balance and effectiveness. The next group is top 40 on both offense and defense, highlighting balance, but just short of the necessary criteria. The third and final group are teams that are top 20 on one side of the floor, but outside the top 50 on the other, meaning the team can’t be relied upon for a balanced run through the NCAA Tournament. 

Ahead of the Sweet 16, let’s see where the remaining qualified teams stand. A few teams are outside the necessary filters, but still have at most four games to play themselves into the 20/20 bucket. 

First, the NCAA Tournament odds.

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2024 NCAA Tournament Odds

2024 National Championship Contenders

This group is growing as teams begin to show their elite level. Teams like Purdue, Duke, and North Carolina all decimated opponents in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, improving their profile to look like a National Championship level team. 

This is a moving target, and I'm trying to project how teams will look at the end of the season. The expectation is if these teams go on to win the National Championship, they will play well enough to remain in good standing.

Of course, the same teams occupy the top of this group with UConn looking as dominant as ever in hopes of winning a second straight National Championship. Houston also proved it had the offensive firepower to play in a high-scoring affair, hanging triple digits on Texas A&M in overtime to ensure a Round of 32 victory. 

This group is getting bigger, which is a sign that we can still have a ton of teams that fit the bill of a National Champion. Also, the quality of play this coming weekend will likely be fantastic as several title-worthy teams meet. Keep an eye on a potential meeting between North Carolina and Arizona in the Elite Eight, if that pans out.

Overall, UConn is clearly the best team, but there are still plenty of elite rosters that can give the team a run on an off-night from the best. 

Fringe National Championship Contenders

This is a small group, but it’s worth noting that all three teams are right on the fringes of being inside the 20/20 bucket. 

With that being said, Tennessee is trending in the wrong direction. While the defense remains elite, third best behind the stifling Iowa State and Houston, the offense has pushed the team further and further from the top 20 ranking over the past several weeks, now 30th in the country.

Some of that may be because the team is off of a dismal 12% shooting night from beyond the arc in a tight win against Texas, but the team is starting to see its effective field goal percentage trend in the wrong direction. Against a disciplined defense like Creighton, who forces a ton of contested mid-range twos, can Tennessee find its form on offense? 

It’s worth noting that Tennessee was able to shut down a potent Texas offense en route to the win. Is that the clunky effort the team had en route to what may be a Final Four run? We’ll see as Tennessee still has one of the best wings in the nation in Dalton Knecht. 

Speaking of Creighton, the Bluejays still profile as a team on shaky ground. The team, like Tennessee, escaped a win against Oregon in double overtime, but are too three-point reliant on offense.

The team is seventh in three-point rate, which is great for when the team is shooting north of 50% from beyond the arc like against Akron in the first round (17-point win) but not a replicable recipe for a six-game winning streak in the ‘Big Dance.’ The Bluejays shot above its season average (38%) on Saturday and still needed double overtime against Oregon. 

Marquette is just outside of the 20/20 barrier, and its one flaw is likely on the glass, as the team is outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates. This may not be exploited in the Sweet 16 against North Carolina State, but a potential meeting with Houston in the Elite Eight can be a major stylistic clash.

Can you Trust These Teams?

This group shrunk a lot since our last edition of this article, as I hinted at for most of this season. The teams that thrive on one side of the ball and struggle on the other are ripe for postseason disappointments. Look at Kentucky, which fits the billing that Alabama and Illinois are part of. 

Both teams face top 10 defenses in the Sweet 16, a clash of elites in opposite directions, but both opponents are more balanced. Illinois faces Iowa State (49th in adjusted offensive efficiency) and Alabama faces North Carolina (a 20/20 team). 

While the two teams are appealing due to incredible offenses, I still can’t trust them to win it all due to their poor defenses. It will come around sooner or later.

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