2024 NCAA Tournament: Higher Seeds Who are Favorites Historically Profitable
By Reed Wallach
The 2024 NCAA Tournament field and the betting markets are taking shape quickly.
There is plenty of historical data to sift through when it comes to successfully betting on the NCAA Tournament. One profitable trend is fading the lower seed (higher-rated team) as an underdog against a higher-seeded team.
The selection committee seeding the field of 68 is different than how betting markets view the teams, and you can see that with the likes of New Mexico, the No. 11 seed in the West Region, favored over the No. 6 seed Clemson. Here's how to bet on this historical trend.
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Fade Lower Seeds as Underdogs
Higher seeds that are favored over lower seeds are incredibly profitable, winning in 35 of 54 instances dating back to 2005 and covering 31 of 54 games (one push).
There are several teams to bet on if you want to follow this trend: New Mexico (vs. Clemson), Nevada (vs. Dayton), and Washington State (vs. Drake).
To be clear, this query doesn't include 8/9 matchups so we are focusing in on matchups where the seed lines are separated by more than two teams.
Given the difference in the market vs. the seeding perception, be wary of standing in front of higher-seeded favorites as sports bettors are giving some unique insight into how to play those games.
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