2024 NCAA Tournament Preview: How KenPom Can Highlight National Championship Betting Value

We have one more week of high major regular season action, and the group of contenders ahead of the March festivities is starting to take shape.

While there are still a few high level matchups to go, and a week of conference tournament play ahead of us, we have a good enough of a sample size to start believing what these teams are and what each team is capable of at its best and at its worst.

Using historical parameters from KenPom, which is outlined in this article here, I have been updating sports bettors weekly as to which teams fall into three buckets. This is an end of the season discussion, but we are trying to update in real time to see who can be inside the historical parameters when the team's cut down the nets.

The three buckets are: 20/20 contenders, all but two tournament winners since 2002 have finished the season inside KenPom's top 20 on both adjusted offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, 40/40 teams that are almost like mini contenders, close to playing into the 20/20 threshold, and teams that are top 20 on one side of the ball and outside the top 50 on the other, bringing some volatility into its tournament play.

Here's this weeks update ahead of the final game or two of the regular season.

2024 National Championship Odds

2024 National Championship Contenders

This group has expanded in recent weeks, adding a surging Duke team, who bludgeoned Virginia at home, and also added Marquette, who held up in a competitive fashion at Creighton despite not having its two best players.

It's worth noting the Golden Eagles won't have Tyler Kolek available for the last two games of the regular season due to an oblique injury. Without the reigning Big East Player of the Year, the Golden Eagles can slip back to the 'Contender Lite' group.

There's other injury news as well. Houston, who has already been playing a thin bench, lost freshman big man Joseph 'JoJo' Tugler for the year after a foot injury.

A key cog to the physical Houston frontcourt, the Cougars are starting to run out of bodies for the stretch run of the season. Jamal Shead also suffered an injury on Saturday, but returned to the game to hit a game winner at Oklahoma.

The last team I'll mention in this group is Tennessee, who put together as good of a week you can ask for in SEC play, rallying to beat Auburn at home in impressive fashion behind 39 points from Dalton Knecht and then winning at Alabama.

The Volunteers are firmly in the 20/20 bucket, and for my money are the second best team in the country. Rick Barnes' group can win with its defense while also leaning on one of the best shooters in the country in Knecht. Balance is the name of the come March, and Tennessee has it.

'Contender Lites'

Purdue's defense continues to be a slight concern if you are looking for one while UNC's lack of perimeter shooting seems to be keeping a lid on the team's ceiling.

However, I want to focus at the bottom of this table. With the likes of San Diego State making a run to the National Championship last season, who was inside the top 40 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency up to March 1, could a surprise team emerge from this group?

Michigan State has had its fair share of struggles all season after starting the season at the top of the AP Poll, but there is no denying the team's analytical profile looks like a contender. With veteran guards and a coach who is linked to the month of March quite a bit, can the Spartans be a frisky underdog in the Round of 32 like last year?

What about Gonzaga, who has caught fire on offense, shooting nearly 40% from beyond the arc in the month of February, to bolster its offensive resume. The Bulldogs have come up short in March, but as a high seed. This year, the group is expected to be around the No. 10 seed line.

Boom-or-Bust

There are plenty of concerns with this group, but you are likely going to see some notable results from a handful of these teams come March, both good and bad. At March 1 last year, Miami was outside the top 100 in terms of defensive efficiency but rode a heater to the Final Four.

Can the same be in store for a team like Alabama, Kentucky, or even Iowa who has quickly played its way onto the NCAA Tournament bubble? The Hawkeyes have won four of five games, including at Michigan State and at Northwestern.

These are teams I usually like to steer clear of come March, but the group brings a wide range of outcomes because one side of the floor is incredibly potent, enough to win a handful of games.

Iowa State was a team I wrote about as one I saw leveling up down the stretch and improving its offensive metrics to look more like a 20/20 contender. While the defense is nearing Houston's level of effectiveness as the best unit in the country, the Cyclones offense is sliding quite a bit.

The group ranked 263rd in effective field goal percentage in the month of February and now are outside the top 60 nationally. The team's poor shooting may be its fatal flaw come March, something I thought could trend up come the NCAA Tournament, as it is for a lot of lopsided teams in this group.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!