2024 NCAA Tournament Preview: National Championship Contenders Based on Historical Analysis

As we march closer towards the madness, the National Championship race continues to take shape ahead of Selection Sunday.

UConn is part of the class of NCAA Tournament contenders and have been on a tear since big man Donovan Clingan returned from a foot injury, and the team made its biggest statement to date by destroying an elite for in Marquette in a battle of Big East titans on Saturday, 81-53.

Who else is with UConn at the top and fit the historical parameters of a National Championship? We have the latest rankings, with help of KenPom, below. As stated in the past editions, here's how we are categorizing the field of potential contenders.

KenPom has been generating these metrics since 1999, which you can find on the website here, and over the past 20-plus years, it has been insanely predictive of pinpointing the National Champion. If you look back at the team's that cut down the nets at the end of the season, most have a similar statistical profile.

Dating back to 2002, all but two teams have been inside KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive metrics top 20. The teams that win it all are not only elite, but they are balanced and able to win in different ways.

The only team that deviates from this trend is the 2014 UConn Huskies, who were sparked by guard Shabazz Napier to a surprising NCAA Championship run.

We have plenty of time to get to the finish line of the season, and we will continue to build on our data in a weekly rundown of three categories: bona fide contenders, outside looking in and one trick ponies; this will help us frame how to look at certain teams and see who is building up or slowing down over the stretch run of the season.

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2024 NCAA Tournament Preview

National Championship Contenders

Based on historical parameters, this is your group of title contenders. These teams are balanced on both sides of the ball, able to win with suffocating defense and explosive offense.

While the teams listed above have different composition's, each can rely on winning in different ways, needed over the NCAA Tournament to win (at least) six games.

UConn, the defending champions, may have some different players making up the roster, but the profile is the same, according to KenPom. The team's frenetic motion on offense, coupled with an elite rim protector in Clingan, has this team at the top yet again. The Huskies' win at home against Marquette was as impressive as a team has looked all season, it's no surprise the team is as clear of a favorite to cut down the nets in March as we have seen this season.

Fringe Contenders

The 20/20 threshold I speak of is a bit forward thinking. That assessment is made at the end of the season, so the tournament games are part of the sample size, and teams can play itself into the threshold. So, I like to look at teams just outside the group of 20/20 teams, the 40/40 club, as potential contending worthy teams.

These teams are just a few strong performances from reaching the aforementioned group, including Marquette, who is still seen as a near title contender despite the drubbing at UConn over the weekend.

Another Big East team, Creighton, gets a chance to improve its standing heading to the home stretch of the regular season with a home game against UConn on Tuesday. The Bluejays have some flaws in its profile, but the team is balanced and is fresh off two competitive road wins against Xavier and Butler, can Greg McDermott's team continue its late season surge to title contender status?

Lopsided Teams That Can't Be Trusted

This is a group of teams that are top 20 on one side of the ball and outside the top 40 on the other side of the ball, indicating that the team is ultra reliant on one side of the ball. While some may be more balanced than others, these are teams that may not be as equipped to handle the rigors of the NCAA Tournament that features varying teams.

As I mentioned last week, Virginia is a lopsided team that can hang its hat on elite defense, but is a dismal offensive group.

The Cavaliers lost at home to Pitt on Tuesday but also held off an NCAA Tournament caliber foe in Wake Forest at home in a game that featured less than 110 total points. While Virginia, who will be in between a 7-9 seed come the 'Big Dance' likely may be primed to win a tourney game or two behind its stifling defense, it's offensive ineptitude will catch up with them eventually.

The same can be said for BYU, who has seemingly peaked after a dominant non conference schedule. The team has slowed down quite a bit in Big 12 play as elite defenses have slowed down Mark Pope's teams elite floor spacing and ability to unpack defenses from the perimeter in.

BYU is still an elite offense, but the defensive flaws have caught up with the Cougars during league play, now outside the top 50 on that side of the ball. If you look at the last 12 games, BYU is 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 103rd in defensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Stats updated as of Monday, February 19.