2024 NCAA Tournament Preview: Using KenPom to Handicap March Madness Field

We are finally here. The 2024 NCAA Tournament field is set and it's time to dig in and evaluate the bracket.

Since January, I've been updating readers weekly on who fits the profile of a National Championship contender based on historical analysis, who is on the fringe of being one, and teams that may look appealing but have flawed profiles.

Using advanced metrics website KenPom, we can find similarities between championship winners. Here's what I wrote a few months back to get you up to speed:

Dating back to 2002, all but two teams have been inside KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive metrics top 20. The teams that win it all are not only elite, but they are balanced and able to win in different ways.

The only team that deviates from this trend is the 2014 UConn Huskies, who were sparked by guard Shabazz Napier to a surprising NCAA Championship run.

So, we are looking for teams that are not only great, but versatile. Rosters that can handle different compositions of teams throughout a six-game run to the National Championship.

Of course, the tournament games count to this metric, so it's a moving target. Considering we are trying to look ahead, I've made three buckets: teams that fit the 20/20 threshold now, teams that are inside the top 40 on both sides of the ball, and a group of teams that are top 20 on one side of the ball but outside the top 50 on the other, ripe for volatile outcomes which is not what you are looking for come March.

Before we break down the groups, let's look at the National Championship odds following Selection Sunday.

2024 National Championship Odds

2024 National Championship Contenders

These are the four teams that qualify today as a historic National Championship winner. Predictably, these teams are reflected as likely winners in the betting market.

UConn is the best team in the nation and there is no denying that, but the team did draw a brutal bracket with another formidable foe in underseeded Auburn.

Every team is unique, but there is quite a bit of similarity between this year's Auburn team and last year's UConn team, who was underseeded as a No. 4 seed in what was deemed the most difficult region, only to play to its incredibly high ceiling and run through the NCAA Tournament en route to the title.

The Tigers are elite on both sides of the ball with the ability to score from inside (29th in two-point percentage) and out (111th in three-point percentage) while also generating a high rate of second chances with big man Johni Broome around the rim. The Tigers play at a fast pace with a ton of ball pressure that plays tight man-to-man defense. Auburn, despite playing in an offensive-minded conference of the SEC, held teams to the lowest effective field goal percentage in the country.

Houston enters the NCAA Tournament in a bit of a bind with injuries starting to add up on an already thin roster. Big man J'Wan Roberts suffered a shin injury in the Big 12 Tournament, and the team is already down a few other key players throughout the season. The Cougars rank outside the top 200 in terms of effective field goal percentage, but that's offset by its top 10 offensive rebounding rate. If the team falls behind, though, can the offense keep the team afloat?

2024 Fringe National Championship Contenders

Plenty of worthy teams in this group that are a few good games away from playing into the contender table.

Purdue's defense continues to be a concern for me, the unit is 336th in turnover percentage and over-reliant on Zach Edey's gravity around the rim. While the soon-to-be two-time Wooden Award winner is an incredible talent, what happens if he is taken off the floor due to foul trouble and the team falls behind early? How will the team make up ground without the ability to pressure the rock?

The same can be said for Creighton, who has the lowest turnover percentage in the country. No thanks.

Tennessee's offense is trending in the wrong direction, but I'm still a believer in this team. The group was tops in SEC play in open three rates on both offense and defense, per ShotQuality, and with a singular threat like Dalton Knecht, I think this team is primed to make the second weekend and beyond.

North Carolina landed the last No. 1 seed, but I do wonder if the team has some underlying issues on the defensive side of the floor, 306th in the country in open three rates, per SQ. If the team runs into a hot shooting team, the team may be played off the floor. however, this team is elite on the glass which can have the team winning the volume battle and staying close, setting up All-American candidate RJ Davis to take over late.

Marquette is the closest to being a contender, and a lot will have to do if Tyler Kolek is healthy enough to play after missing the final six games of the Golden Eagles season. The team is vulnerable on the glass but is a dynamic offense with Kolek and Oso Ighadoro working the two-man game. Further, the team is top 20 in turnover rate.

Be Careful of These Teams in March Madness

These teams provide a lot of high ceiling/low floor outcomes, which can be good for teams that can win a game or two in a one game sample given that they thrive on one side of the ball. However, these teams don't profile as likely National Championship winners as the team can't mitigate an off shooting night or an opponent going off from the perimeter with its weakside of the floor.

Some of these teams may be popular due to its pleasing style of play, think Kentucky or Alabama, but those teams are ripe for exits against a team with more balance.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!