2024 NFL Mock Draft Based on Betting Odds for Top 10 Picks
We are now one week out from the first day of the 2024 NFL Draft, so it's time for us to do our mock draft.
With that being said, we're going to our mock draft here at BetSided a little bit differently. Instead of relying on what "insiders" have to say, we're going to base our predictions on the top 10 picks on the betting odds. After all, if there's any real information out there to be had, you can guarantee that oddsmakers and sports bettors are aware of it.
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NFL Mock Draft Based on Odds
1) Chicago Bears - Caleb Williams
This one comes as no surprise and should be the consensus No. 1 overall pick in everyone's mock draft. At -10000 odds, the implied probability of Caleb Williams being the No. 1 overall pick in next week's draft is 99.01%. Yeah, I think it's pretty safe to make this prediction.
2) Washington Commanders - Jayden Daniels
There had been plenty of debates and reports surrounding which quarterback the Washington Commanders would select at No. 2 overall. Drake Maye was the favorite at one point and then there was buzz around them selecting Michigan product, J.J. McCarthy. Now that the dust has mostly settled, Jayden Daniels is once again the odds on favorite.
At -330 odds, there's a 76.74% chance the Commanders select the Heisman Trophy winner with their No. 2 overall pick.
3) New England Patriots - Drake Maye
This is where things could start to get a little bit murky. We know the Patriots are likely to select a quarterback, but we don't know yet exactly who that is going to be. Drake Maye is the most likely option at -150 odds (60% implied probability), but it could also be Jayden Daniels if he's still available.
J.J. McCarthy also has a chance of being selected by the Patriots in that spot, even with Maye still on the board. With that being said, the odds lean Maye so that's where we're going to go for the purposes of our mock draft.
4) Arizona Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr.
There's a chance the Arizona Cardinals could trade down in the draft with a team that is desperate for a quarterback. If that happens, we could see J.J. McCarthy go int his spot, which is why he's second on the odds list to be selected here at +380 odds (20.83% implied probability).
With that being said, we're going to try to not overthink this. Marvin Harrison Jr. has been slid into this spot since we knew the official draft order months ago, so I'm going to assume the odds are telling us that nothing significant has changed since then. The Cardinals take the top receiver in the draft.
5) Minnesota Vikings (via Chargers) - J.J. McCarthy
This is where the idea of the mock draft based on odds gets a little bit tricky and I need to submit my personal opinion. Malik Nabers, the receiver from LSU, is the betting favorite to be both the No. 5 overall pick and No. 6 overall pick. Due to him being a bigger favorite to go 6th overall, we're going to slot him in that spot.
That means the next player on the odds list who hasn't been selected in our mock draft yet is J.J. McCarthy, but with the Chargers obviously not selecting a quarterback here, we need to make our first potential trade of the draft. The Minnesota Vikings are a likely candidate considering they're in desperate need for a QB and hold the No. 11 pick in the draft. We're going to slot in a trade here and predict the Vikings moving up to No. 5 to select McCarthy.
At +450 odds, there's a 18.18% chance the Michigan product is selected fifth overall.
6) New York Giants - Malik Nabers
The Giants may opt to select J.J. McCarthy in this spot if he's still available but since they're financially tied to Daniel Jones for at least another year, the odds indicate they'll take the top receiver on the board instead. If Malik Nabers hasn't been selected yet, there's a good chance he's taken by New York here. If he has, they may opt for Rome Odunze.
At +160 odds, there's a 38.46% chance Nabers is selected sixth overall.
7) Tennessee Titans - Joe Alt
It's strange to see oddsmakers this confident in a player to go seventh overall, but they have Joe Alt with -130 odds (56.52% implied probability) to go in this spot which is currently held by the Tennessee Titans.
The Titans have quietly had a strong offseason, but they need to boost their offensive line in a hurry so Alt makes too much sense for them at No. 7.
8) Atlanta Falcons - Dallas Turner
The Falcons have their quarterback and they've made several other key signings this offseason, but they're still missing an elite pass-rusher, something they've struggled to find the past two decades. Dallas Turner and Laiatu Latu top the list, but there's still plenty of questions of which of the two they'll select. We're going to write in Turner considering he's the +200 favorite, which is an implied probability of 33.33% chance. Jared Verse is also a possibility for them at the position at +950 odds.
Keep in mind the Falcons have a history of drafting the best player available, which is largely why Rome Odunze third on the odds list at +700. Don't be shocked if the Falcons decide to get yet another weapon for Kirk Cousins.
9) Chicago Bears - Rome Odunze
It makes too much sense for the Chicago Bears to draft a weapon at receiver for their quarterback of the future that they selected first overall, especially with Darnell Mooney now in Atlanta.
At +200 odds, the Washington product has a 33.33% chance of being selected ninth overall.
10) New York Jets - Brock Bowers
There are people who believe the Georgia tight end is the best overall player in this draft and with the Jets spending the early parts of their offseason signing protection and weapons for Aaron Rodgers, it wouldn't shock anyone if the Jets draft a tight end for him as well.
At +250 odds, there's an implied probability of 28.57% that Brock Bowers is the No. 10 overall pick next week.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.