2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Candidates, Full Preview with Odds and Prediction
As we approach the summer months we are beginning to hit a lag in the sports world. The NHL and NBA playoffs are approaching the final stretch. Two of the four major golf tournaments are already behind us, which means for the next few months, baseball will occupy the headlines in sports. However, just on the horizon, we can start to see football season.
The NFL schedule has been released, OTA’s are underway, and soon enough we will be hearing about all of the news and developments from training camps. Well, allow me to indulge our football cravings just a little by talking about a few of the candidates for the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award.
This year’s draft class was loaded with talent and there are many rookies destined to make an immediate impact on their franchises they can provide great value to bettors looking to get a head start on the NFL season.
Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds and Prediction
Caleb Williams (+170)
The number one overall pick in this year’s draft is the favorite to win the Rookie of the Year (ROY) award and will look to be Chicago’s first ROY since Anthony Thomas back in 2001. Williams will have plenty of weapons at his disposal as the Bears have provided him the support that was absent for Justin Fields.
Williams will have a dynamic duo on the outside with DJ Moore and newly signed Keenan Allen. Chicago’s other first-round draft pick Rome Odunze adds to what projects to be the best trio of receivers in the NFC North. Despite all of the weapons for Williams, if he is to win the ROY he is going to need to stay on his feet.
Last season Justin Fields was the fifth most sacked quarterback, and if the Bears offensive line has a repeat performance this season, Williams will be running for his life similar to his final season at USC.
The opponents Williams will be facing his rookie season provide him a real “Welcome to the NFL” experience; with back-to-back road games against the Texans and Colts, a trip to London to play the Jaguars, a stretch of three-straight road games against the Lions, 49ers, and Vikings, and a season finale on the road in Green Bay.
If Caleb Williams can put up solid numbers and lead the Bears to a respectable record, he should run away with the ROY award.
Jayden Daniels (+600)
The reigning Heisman trophy winner is the newest beacon of hope for a Commander franchise that hasn’t had stability at the quarterback position since the days of Joe Theismann. Daniels is going to have his hands full with this rebuild project because there is a major lack of depth at the skill position for Washington.
Terry McLaurin is a legitimate number-one option at receiver but there is a major drop-off after McLaurin; Washington still hopes that Jahon Dotson can emerge as a strong second option in his third season and that their second-round draft pick Ben Sinnott can fill the major hole at tight end, and the addition of Austin Ekeler to the backfield should provide Daniels with a great safety valve.
Daniels will be facing six playoff teams from last season in his rookie campaign, and no presumed rookie starting quarterback is entering a situation with as much uncertainty in terms of line protection and skill position depth, yet Daniels has the second shortest odds to win the award, which is an indication that he might be capable of doing more with less.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (+700)
The top receiver in this year’s draft also has the shortest odds of any receiver to win the ROY award. The Arizona Cardinals have big expectations for Marvin Harrison Jr. to be the go-to star receiver that they have lacked since Larry Fitzgerald roamed the desert.
Harrison Jr. figures to be the immediate number one receiver on a Cardinals team that lacks depth at the receiver position. The health of starting quarterback Kyler Murray will be a major factor in how well Harrison Jr. can perform this season, as Murray has not started a full season since 2020.
Now while the lack of depth will make Harrison Jr. the focus of the offense it will also result in him drawing the assignment of opposing defenses' top cornerbacks, which when facing the Jets, Chargers, Dolphins, and 49ers will either make or break his ROY chances.
Bo Nix (+2000)
Tasked with leading the rebuild after the broken ride that was the Russell Wilson era in Denver, Bo Nix is hoping to show that he was worth being selected in the top twelve despite the expectation of being a late first-round pick at best.
Nix is entering a favorable situation for a rookie quarterback; he has an offensive-minded coach in Sean Payton, and he is inheriting a solid receiving corps with Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, newly signed Josh Reynolds, as well as Nix’s top target from Oregon last season Troy Franklin.
What also adds to the value of Nix’s ROY chances is his ability to make plays with his legs; Nix posted 38 career-rushing touchdowns and over sixteen hundred yards on the ground during his college days.
Nix is going to have to use every tool in his arsenal to win games as a rookie, because outside of their divisional matchups the Broncos have road trips to Seattle, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Baltimore, and Cincinnati, and the home schedule isn’t any easier with Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Cleveland, and Indianapolis making the trip to the Mile High City.
Keon Coleman (+2500)
The Internet’s favorite draft pick is a bit of a long-shot candidate but one that in my mind has a legitimate chance of winning ROY. Keon Coleman will immediately be the number one target for Josh Allen following the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, also due to the lack of receiver depth the Bills possess.
Coleman is a 6’4’’ receiver, who when he initially started his career at Michigan State, also played on the basketball team which provided him a major advantage when it came to winning contested throws and scoring in the red zone.
Coleman will be attracting the assignment of most team’s top cornerbacks, which is going to be a difficult thing for him to overcome when facing the Jets, Dolphins, 49ers, Chiefs, and Ravens, which is why the Bills must find other options at receiver to take some of the burden off of a rookie’s shoulders.
If Buffalo can do that, then Keon Coleman has a chance to be the third receiver in four years to win the ROY award.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Prediction
I am going to with Jaden Daniels to win the ROY award. While Caleb Williams has the inside track to win the award on many fronts, it’s just too square to pick such an overwhelming favorite.
Also, the odds on Daniels have become shorter over the past few weeks, which can certainly be attributed to bettors finding good value in a futures bet, but I also believe that Daniels will be able to improve the talent around him, similar to CJ Stroud last season, and entering last season, CJ Stroud had roughly the same odds that Jayden Daniels does this season.
Pick: Jayden Daniels +600
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.