2024 NHL Eastern Conference Stanley Cup Playoff Preview (Who Should Bettors Trust?)
It’s mid-April, which means that the madness of college basketball is in the rearview, baseball is in full swing, and football is light-years away. With that being said, we get to enjoy the two best words in all of sports. Playoff hockey.
Sixteen teams will spend the next two months battling to raise the Stanley Cup trophy and I for one cannot wait another day.
Lets take a look at the odds of the eight teams in the Eastern Conference and cover why each team can win and also cannot win the Stanley Cup title.
Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Carolina Hurricanes
Why can they win? Balance, the Canes defense is one of the best in the league, averaging 2.57 ga/gp, third fewest in the NHL, as well as owning the league’s best penalty kill (86.4%). The offense is electric with Sebastian Aho leading the team in both goals and assists, and he leads an offense that possesses the second best power play (26.9%) in the league.
The addition of Jake Guentzel at the trade deadline has been seamless and his 34 career playoff goals will be key for a Canes team looking to win the franchise’s second title.
Why can’t they win? A big concern for the Canes is the health of goaltender Freddy Andersen. Andersen missed more than half of the season, and his career was even in jeopardy due to a blood clotting issue.
Since his return in mid-March he has been spectacular, posting a 9-1 record, including wins over Florida and Toronto. However, Andersen’s return has seen him play on multiple days rest between starts.
It is not clear if the Canes plan to use an alternating goaltender rotation during the postseason, but the absence of consecutive starts for Andersen is a cause for concern seeing that he will be needed on a nightly basis to help this team win a championship.
Florida Panthers
Why they can win? The Panthers check all of the right boxes that a title contender needs to have checked. An offense that ranks second with 33.71 shots per game, eighth on the power play (23.5%), and average 3.23 goals per game with Sam Reinhart leading the way with 57 goals.
The defense has been equally as impressive, as the Panthers rank first with 2.41 goals allowed per game, they rank third with 27.79 shots allowed per game, and have the sixth best penalty kill (82.5%). The goaltending of Sergei Bobrovsky has been superb, and the emergence of backup goaltender Anthony Stolarz and his .925 save percentage has been a major addition to this team.
Why they can’t win? I know I just highlighted the great goaltending and I hate answering a question with a question, however. Which Sergei Bobrovsky is going to show up for the playoffs?
The reason I ask is because since mid-March, Bobrovsky has a 3.00 goals allowed per game average, which is above his season average, and Florida, has gone 3-6-2 against playoff teams since March 1st. If Bobrovsky’s recent play carries into the playoffs, a repeat run at the cup for the Panthers will be short-lived.
New York Rangers
Why they can win? The Rangers special teams unit is extraordinary; they rank third on both the power play (26.7%) and on the penalty kill (84.3%). Artemi Panarin is the focal point of the Rangers’ power play, as he has scored 37% of his points this season on the man advantage, and as a team the Rangers have scored 65 goals on the power play, which is the fourth most in the NHL.
The Rangers also feature a two-headed monster in the net with Igor Shesterkin and the resurgent Jonathan Quick combining to average 2.63 goals allowed per game making this Rangers team one of the most complete teams in the NHL.
Why they can’t win? While the Rangers are virtually unstoppable on the power play, the area where they struggle the most is when they’re playing 5-on-5. The Rangers have an expected goals average per 60 minutes of 2.54, which is slightly below the league average.
While this hasn’t been a major area of concern during the regular season, the Rangers will face teams in the postseason that can control the puck during 5-on-5 play, making it even more difficult for the Rangers to score when playing at even strength.
Boston Bruins
Why they can win? Because David Pastrnak will continue to be an offensive machine that defenses are incapable of defending. Pastrnak is seventh in the league in goals with 47 and he has the second most shots on goal making opposing goaltenders time on the ice a living nightmare.
The Bruins also have two of the best goaltenders in the NHL with Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark collectively providing the Bruins with a .912 save percentage and averaging only 2.70 goals allowed per game.
Why they can’t win? Outside of Pastrnak, the Bruins have lacked offensive production from everyone on the roster. James van Riemsdyk, Jake DeBrusk, and Danton Heinen have all had respectable seasons, but down the stretch they have been very inconsistent which is why the Bruins have seen a major drop off in scoring towards the end of the season.
Also, the Bruins rank in the bottom half of the league in face-offs won, it has been an area of concern for this team all season and it has hurt them specifically in the defensive zone which has cost them games late in the third period and in overtime.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Why they can win? High-end talent. The Maple Leafs are littered with it on offense; William Nylander posted his second consecutive 40-goal season and set a career high with 58 assists, Mitch Marner is third on the team in points with 84 despite only playing in 69 games, and John Tavares has been very effective since his demotion to the third line.
Oh, there is also this guy named Auston Matthews, an absolute scoring machine with 69 goals on the season. All of this high-end talent has the Maple Leafs entering the postseason with the NHL’s second highest scoring offense with 3.63 goals per game.
Why they can’t win? The Maple Leafs have a serious lack of depth beyond the top four players, which was one of the reasons that Tavares was dropped to the third line, and while Tavares’ play has improved, the rest of the lineup has remained stagnant.
The other issue is the poor play of goaltender Ilya Samsonov, who has struggled all season long and enters the playoffs with a .890 save percentage, which is the worst percentage amongst all qualified goaltenders in the postseason.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Why they can win? The Lightning have the NHL’s best power play (28.6%), which is led by Nikita Kucherov who has scored 53 of his league leading 142 points on the power play. Kucherov is one of three 40-goal scorers for the Lightning, with Braden Point and Steven Stamkos being the others.
Tampa Bay finished the last month and a half of the season with a 13-5-2 record and appears to be peaking at the right time as they try for their third title this decade.
Why they can’t win? Despite their impressive close to the season and the almost unstoppable force that is their offense, the flaw in this team lies within veteran goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. Vasilevskiy has a career high 2.90 goal allowed average, and posted a career low .900 save percentage.
The struggles may be attributed to the offseason surgery that Vasilevskiy had to repair a herniated disk in his back, but the fact that there hasn’t been any improvement during the season it jarring. Vasilevskiy’s postseason success is well documented, but the Lightning will only go as far as Vasilevskiy can carry them.
New York Islanders
Why they can win? The Islanders have gone on an 8-0-1 stretch since the start of April, and if they can continue that hot streak into the postseason, that is realistically their only chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Also if Ilya Sorokin can flip a switch and revert back to his stellar play of seasons past, after posting a career high 3.01 goals allowed average and a career worst .908 save percentage.
Why they can’t win? The Islanders don’t do anything well. Defense used to be the team’s calling card, however this season the Isles have the worst penalty kill (71.5%) in the NHL, and they struggle to control the defensive zone, averaging 32.74 shots allowed per game which is the fourth most in the league, resulting in 3.15 goals allowed per game.
The offense isn’t any better; averaging only 2.99 goals per game which ranks 22nd in the league, and they score on only 20.3% of their power play chances, they’ve been shutout seven times and enter the playoffs with a -13 goal differential. A first round matchup against the defensive minded Carolina Hurricanes awaits the Islanders.
Washington Capitals
Why they can win? Because Alex Ovechkin dragged this team kicking and screaming into the playoffs, scoring 15 goals since March 1st, and it will be entirely on his shoulders to carry the Capitals to their second Stanley Cup title.
Why they can’t win? The Capitals have the worst offense out of the 16 teams in the playoffs; entering the postseason with a -36 goal differential, the Capitals have been outscored in every period this season, including overtime.
The Capitals offense hasn’t shown an ability to create any scoring opportunities, averaging only 26.50 shots per game resulting in 2.63 goals per game; both are the fewest among playoff teams.
The struggles on offense are the reason why the Capitals have the longest odds to win the Cup, and while crazy things have happened before, I wouldn’t waste my time backing this team.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change