2024 US Open Odds, Course Preview and Best Bets (Predictions for Pinehurst)

Scottie Scheffler's recent triumph at the Memorial Tournament, marking his fifth victory this year, has catapulted him to the top of the favorites list for the upcoming U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2. With odds of +325, Scheffler's position is a testament to his exceptional form.

In fact, only Tiger Woods has been favored over the past four decades with shorter odds to win a major championship. The last time odds were this short was when Woods was +150 to win the PGA Championship in 2009 (via Evan Abrams).

Last weekend, players faced the challenge of Muirfield Village Golf Club at the Memorial Tournament in Ohio. Muirfield is one of the most challenging courses played on tour yearly, and the conditions are similar to those of the U.S. Open.

However, Pinehurst No. 2 is different from your typical U.S. Open course. However, it is still highly challenging in its own way and will test players' precision and mental toughness.

With Pinehurst presenting a unique challenge, let's break down the course, the field, and some key stats before I break down my full weekly betting card.

Pinehurst No.2 U.S. Open History

The first U.S. Open was played in 1895. It was initially played on a nine-hole course and then became a 36-hole event on the same day. 1898 was the first year the U.S. Open was played as a 72-hole event. The event has always been played at various challenging courses, focusing on ball striking and shot-making. This year, it will be played at the famous Pinehurst No.2.

This will be the fourth time that Pinehurst has held the U.S. Open. It most recently held this event in 2014, when Martin Kaymer won his second major championship. Pinehurst held this event for the first time in 1999 and then again in 2005.

The Course: Pinehurst No.2

What is the first thing you think of when reviewing U.S. Open courses? For me, and most, the most prominent feature of these courses is the long, thick rough that swallows golf balls.

Well, at Pinehurst No.2, there is no longer any rough on the course. The fairways are an average of 40 yards wide, relatively wide, but in place of the typical long rough at the U.S. Open, Pinehurst sandy waste areas with natural vegetation create a hefty penalty for shots that miss the fairway.

Pinehurst is a 7,543-yard Par 70 track that plays an average of +3.08 strokes over par, making it one of the most challenging golf courses. Being over 7,500 yards, it requires some distance but also demands precision.

All of the greens at Pinehurst are elevated and firm; there is also a ton of slope and undulation that repels approach shots in every different direction; while the green complexes are 6,500 square feet on average, about only half of that is usable on every green while the rest is there to push balls of the green and put pressure on players short games.

Once on the green, this course gets more challenging; between the slope and the lightning-fast pace, reading 13.5 on the stimpmeter, these Bermuda greens will be a crapshoot. Rather than trying to make every putt, Pinehurst's greens force players to putt defensively; this course is more about avoiding three putts rather than relying on being able to make a few long ones per round.

Pinehurst is a challenging track all the way around. A lack of focus on one shot on any of these holes can quickly turn what looks like a par into a double bogey. This course demands every shot in the bag, but we will discuss that in the key stats section below.

The Field

10,052 people tried to qualify for the U.S. Open this year, with the official field narrowed down to 156 golfers, which means this event will have a cut after 36 holes.

Only the top 60 players (including ties) will get to play the weekend. The field consists of 82 players who made it in through exemption, and the other 68 made it through qualifying. Of those 68, 15 of them are amateurs. Here is a list of the entire field:

Key Stats

Off-The-Tee:

While the fairways at Pinehurst are relatively broad, the sandy waste areas surrounding them are extremely punishing, making it imperative that players keep the ball on green grass. But more than hitting the fairway is needed to succeed in this course.

With the elevated sloping greens, players must play to specific sides on the fairway to create angles for approach shots to avoid going over the rolling hills and dramatic runoffs on all sides of the green. In this event, you will want to look for strong golfers in:

• Distance From The Edge Of The Fairway
• Good Drive %
• Driving Accuracy %

Driving distance is purely a bonus this week despite the long course.

Approach:

The second shot will be the most crucial on all these holes. While Pinehurst does have some pretty large greens, they are tough to hit. Johnny Miller once described these greens as “(it's) like trying to hit a ball on top of a VW Beetle” (via Ron Klos). These greens are firm, fast, and crowned, the perfect combination to send golf balls rolling in every direction.

As I mentioned before, only half of the surface on every green is usable. Players must play to these areas with perfect distance control if they want the ball to stop on the green. Players who go flag stick hunting will be penalized and struggle this weekend. Look for golfers who rank highly in:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Greens in Regulation %
• Proximity To The Hole: 175+ Yards (55% of approach shots will be hit from outside this distance.)

Around The Green and Putting

I rarely care about anything related to the short game in most courses. But, there will be a massive emphasis at Pinehurst because the terrain will cause unlucky bounces for every play on the field. With these greens being so tricky to hit, to begin with, everyone, even the guys playing well will have to rely on their short game around the green this weekend. But what is unique about Pinehurst compared to many other U.S. Open venues is that most of these scrambling situations come from short grass rather than thick, rough, or deep bunkers.

This course is challenging on the greens. With these Bermuda grass greens running at 13.5 on the stimpmeter, players will have to putt defensively rather than trying to make every putt. This will nullify many of the advantages that good putters have. With the 3-putt percentage being over five percent on this course, more than double the PGA Tour average, there is going to be a huge emphasis on lag putting this weekend.   

• SG: Around The Green
• Scrambling %: Short Grass
• Bogey Avoidance
• 3-Putt Avoidance
• Approach Putt Performance

U.S. Open Best Bets

Collin Morikawa

• Outright (+1400)
• Top 20 Finish (-138)

• For this top-20 finisher play, I have used Bet365's 50% profit boost on any bet on the U.S. Open this week. If you don't have access to bet365, other books will likely have boosts, but if you can't find a boost, I would lay off this play at its hefty price tag.

Morikawa feels due for a win; he has placed inside the top 20 in six of his last seven starts on tour, racked up five top-10 finishes over that stretch, and finished inside the top five in three straight events.

Morikawa is entering this event, ranking No. 5 in total strokes gained at major championships over the last five years and No. 7 in the field over the previous year in strokes gained tee-to-green in harsh scoring conditions. Between Morikawa's recent form, gaining 1.91 strokes per round ball, striking over his last 12 rounds, and finishing in the top five at the first two major championships this year, I bet he has another good weekend at Pinehurst.

Hideki Matsuyama

• Outright (+4500)
• Top 30 Finish (+105)

Matsuyama is another guy who has been playing well recently; he has six top-30 finishes in his last eight events and has finished inside the top 30 in seven of his previous eight trips to the U.S. Open dating back to 2015.

Matsuyama has performed very well over the last year in strong fields and courses with very difficult scoring conditions. Recently, he has been phenomenal around the greens and on approach and ranks 11th in the field in total strokes gained in major championships over the last five years.

The concern with Matsuyama is typically his putter, but he has gained strokes with the flat stick in three straight events. I am banking on Matsuyama's solid tee-to-green play to keep him in the mix this weekend.

Russell Henley

• Outright (+9000)
• Top 40 Finish (+100)

This might be my favorite play of the weekend; Henley has finished in the top 40 in six straight events and four of the last six major championships he has played in.

While Henley lacks distance off the tee, he is one of the best ball strikers in the field, has an exceptional short game, and is an excellent putter. So far this season, Henley ranks No.4 in driving accuracy and No.6 in distance from the edge of the fairway on the PGA Tour, two critical metrics that will be used to help set up easier approach shots into these challenging greens.

Henley also ranks No. 4 in 3-Putt Avoidance on tour this season; between his consistent ball striking, putting and short game, I bet he is in the mix down the stretch this weekend.

That is all I have on my card right now. I will be adding more plays to it throughout the week. Follow me on to stay updated with everything I put out for this week's U.S. Open.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.