Strap in, folks.
Chapter 3 of the Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs rivalry in the Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes era is set to be written infront of our eyes this evening when the two teams face-off once again with a berth in the AFC Championship on the line.
You can read my full betting preview for the game here.
In this article, I'm going to break down my three best bets for the game, including which side I'm backing along with two player props.
If you want to get in on the action yourself, I recommend signing up for an account at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you do so by clicking the link below, you'll receive $150 in bonus bets when you place your first $5 wager!
Best Bets Today for Chiefs vs. Bills
- Chiefs +2.5 vs. Bills
- Khalil Shakir OVER 32.5 receiving yards
- Rashee Rice anytime TD (+130)
Chiefs +2.5 vs. Bills
I refuse to fall for the trap of betting against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, especially in the playoffs. The Chiefs outranked the Bills in Net Yards per Play this season at +0.8 and had the fifth-best road Net Yards per Play at +0.5.
We can even look at their Week 14 loss to the Bills and despite losing the game, 20-17, the Chiefs outgained them 5.6 yards per play to 4.5 yards per play. Josh Allen struggled in that game, completing just 23-of-42 passes for 4.6 yards per throw. That's because of the Chiefs secondary, which is one of the best in the NFL, allowing just 5.4 yards per throw this season while ranking third in opponent dropback EPA and second in opponent dropback success rate.
The key for the Bills winning this game is to run the football early and often. Based on their game plan against Kansas City earlier this season, I'm not confident they'll do that.
Then there's the immeasurables. The Chiefs have been here, albeit not on the road, plenty of times in the past few seasons. Nobody has had more success in high-pressure playoff situations than the Chiefs since Mahomes took over as their quarterback.
You also have to be concerned by the Bills' defense, which allowed the Steelers to gain 324 yards of total offense against them. If they play that poorly against the Chiefs, their season is over.
Khalil Shakir OVER 32.5 receiving yards
Khalil Shakir, at times this season, looked like the second best option at wideout for the Bills and now with Gabe Davis sidelined once again, he'll serve as their true No. 2 receiver. Even with a slow start to the season, he still averaged 35.9 receiving yards per games this season, so if he can just reach his season average, this bet will hit.
He has gone over this total in three of his last four starts.
Rashee Rice anytime TD (+130)
The Chiefs have found their clear No. 1 receiver in Rashee Rice. He showed up in a big way in the Wild Card Round against the Dolphins, hauling in eight receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown.
He has now scored a touchdown in seven of his last 13 games and he should be poised to find the end zone once again tonight against the Bills.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!