By the time the San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions kick-off for the NFC Championship, we'll already know who'll be waiting for the winner in the Super Bowl.
No matter how your bets went in the AFC Championship, the NFC Championship is a new game for us to either further pad our pockets, or try to win back some losses from the afternoon.
In this article, I'm going to break down my three best bets for the game. Let's dive into it.
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NFC Championship Best Bets
- 49ers -7.5 vs. Lions
- Brock Purdy OVER 275. passing yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush OVER 14.5 yards
49ers -7.5 vs. Lions
I still believe the 49ers are the best team in the NFL and a lot of metrics would back that up. They lead the league in Net Yards per Play at +1.6 and now they get to host a Lions team that has struggled on the road all season. Detroit has a Net Yards per Play of +0.6 when playing at home, but that drops down to -0.3 on the road.
Their offense averages a half yard per play less when playing away from Ford Field.
Then there's the Lions' defense, which is one of the worst in the NFL. The team allowed the Rams to gain 7.7 yards against them in the Wild Card Round and then allowed the Buccaneers to average 6.8 yards per play against them in the Divisional Round. Allowing your opponent to outgain you by that much is unsustainable, especially now that you have to face the best offense in the NFL.
The 49ers lead the NFL in yards per play, EPA per play, and success rate. They're going to feed on this Lions' defense. To keep pace, Detroit's offense may need to score on every possession, and I don't think they can do that on the road.
With the line getting below the magic number of 7.0, I'll lay the points with San Francisco.
Brock Purdy OVER 275. passing yards
Brock Purdy and the 49ers should have a field day against this Lions secondary. Detroit comes in the game ranking 30th in opponent yards per pass attempt and the bottom five in both opponent dropback EPA and opponent dropback success rate. They also give up the second-most passing yards in the game at 256.9.
Say what you want about Purdy, but he leads the NFL in virtually every single passing statistic, including yards per attempt (9.6), yards per completion (13.9), quarterback rating, and QBR. I think he has a chance to soar over this number today.
Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush OVER 14.5 yards
Jahmyr Gibbs doesn't get a ton of carries, but he seems to make the most of them every week. That's why we should bet on his longest rush instead of the total amount of rushing yards he will accumulate.
Gibbs has had a rush of at least 15 yards long in 12-of-17 games this season, including a 31-yard touchdown scamper against the Buccaneers last week. This might just be the best value bet on the board as he's typically good for one explosive run each game he plays in.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!