The 42-20 Memphis Grizzlies host the 24-37 San Antonio Spurs tonight at 8:00 PM EST. These teams have played twice already this year, with the Grizzlies winning and covering the spread in both.
WynnBET has Memphis as 8.5-point favorites tonight while the over/under is set at 237. With a total that high, oddsmakers are expecting a lot of points and counting stats in this one.
Instead of looking to the spread or total, I've identified three player props that give us value in this matchup of high-scoring teams.
Keldon Johnson To Make 3+ Three-Pointers (+125)
The Grizzlies allow the second-most three-point attempts and makes of any team in the league. Their opponents are typically trailing and trying to make a comeback, so they're more likely to hoist up shots.
In his two games against Memphis this year, Keldon Johnson shot 5/14 from beyond the arc and I like his chances to keep firing. He's become a bigger part of the Spurs offense as the season as gone on and is averaging 6.6 three-point attempts per game over the last month. He's hit this prop in 5/9 games this month and now faces a team that gives up more three-pointers than anyone else he's faced in that stretch.
It may not be until the 4th quarter that we're celebrating, but I love getting plus money on a prop I think should be closer to -120.
Jaren Jackson Over 18.5 Points (-115)
The Spurs' defense wants to funnel shots inside and prevent opponents from shooting beyond the arc. They allow the fewest three-point attempts but allow the most two-point attempts per game of any team in the league,
That means I'm looking for a strong game from Jaren Jackson inside to punish the Spurs' so-so interior defenders. In the first matchup against San Antonio, Jackson was just 5/17 from the field and scored 12 points, but the number of shot attempts shows how the Grizzlies offense can run through him against teams like the Spurs.
In the second matchup, Jackson shot 9/14 and scored 22 points. He's cleared 18.5 points in 5/9 games this month but has struggled from the field in his last few, scoring double-digits just twice in his previous three. I think that's giving us value on this prop and this game sets up nicely for the Grizzlies to get their big man going.
Desmond Bane Under 19.5 (-115)
Bane lives and dies by the three. Since the Spurs specifically play defense to prevent teams from shooting three's, Bane should struggle.
He's cleared this point total just three times in nine February games and in those three games, he made 14 three-point shots. In fact, he's only scored 20 points without making at least four three-pointers four times all season.
With WynnBET setting his odds at 4+ three-pointers at +210, I think we have tremendous value on the under in this prop. Trust the Spurs' defensive style to mitigate Bane's biggest strength.
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